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Can the yield curve still predict recessions?

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Manage episode 445449954 series 2504996
Kandungan disediakan oleh NPR. Semua kandungan podcast termasuk episod, grafik dan perihalan podcast dimuat naik dan disediakan terus oleh NPR atau rakan kongsi platform podcast mereka. Jika anda percaya seseorang menggunakan karya berhak cipta anda tanpa kebenaran anda, anda boleh mengikuti proses yang digariskan di sini https://ms.player.fm/legal.
Two years ago, the yield curve inverted. That means short-term interest rates on Treasury bonds were unusually higher than long-term interest rates. When that's happened in the past, a recession has come. In fact, the inverted yield curve has predicted every recession since 1969 ... until now. Today, are we saying goodbye to the inverted yield curve's flawless record?
Related episodes:
The inverted yield curve is screaming RECESSION (Apple / Spotify)
Yield curve jitters
Two Yield Curve Indicators
For sponsor-free episodes of The Indicator from Planet Money, subscribe to Planet Money+ via Apple Podcasts or at plus.npr.org.
Music by
Drop Electric. Find us: TikTok, Instagram, Facebook, Newsletter.
Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoices
NPR Privacy Policy
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1719 episod

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iconKongsi
 
Manage episode 445449954 series 2504996
Kandungan disediakan oleh NPR. Semua kandungan podcast termasuk episod, grafik dan perihalan podcast dimuat naik dan disediakan terus oleh NPR atau rakan kongsi platform podcast mereka. Jika anda percaya seseorang menggunakan karya berhak cipta anda tanpa kebenaran anda, anda boleh mengikuti proses yang digariskan di sini https://ms.player.fm/legal.
Two years ago, the yield curve inverted. That means short-term interest rates on Treasury bonds were unusually higher than long-term interest rates. When that's happened in the past, a recession has come. In fact, the inverted yield curve has predicted every recession since 1969 ... until now. Today, are we saying goodbye to the inverted yield curve's flawless record?
Related episodes:
The inverted yield curve is screaming RECESSION (Apple / Spotify)
Yield curve jitters
Two Yield Curve Indicators
For sponsor-free episodes of The Indicator from Planet Money, subscribe to Planet Money+ via Apple Podcasts or at plus.npr.org.
Music by
Drop Electric. Find us: TikTok, Instagram, Facebook, Newsletter.
Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoices
NPR Privacy Policy
  continue reading

1719 episod

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