Greg Weldon: Silver Looks Good Here

McAlvany Weekly Commentary

Gold Will Break To The Upside There's Not Enough Growth To Support The Debt Housing Prices To Fall "Argentina's stock market, new high. Turkey's stock market, new high. Pakistan's market, new high. What do these things have in common? Currencies that are getting filleted. It's gold in those currencies that has kept the value, not the stock markets. And that is something key that U.S. investors are going to have to learn or they're going to get filleted." - Gregory Weldon Kevin: Welcome to the McAlvany Weekly Commentary. I'm Kevin Orrick along with David McAlvany. David, a long-time-ago guest. It's amazing to me that after 17 years we're looking back and going, "Gosh, that was a long time ago that you talked to Greg Weldon." David: The book that he wrote back in 2007, Gold Trading Bootcamp, it was interesting to me. We had him on as a guest, I think it was actually 2009, but this does go back a ways. And it brings some interesting insights into trading, investing the markets in general. Spent some time at Commodity Corporation, a trading outfit on the East Coast, at Princeton, Moore Capital, got to rub shoulders with some interesting people in his day. Whether it was Bruce Kovner or Louis Bacon, Paul Tudor Jones, and the combination of macro thinking and technical analysis and a real open mindedness to connecting a lot of different dots, there are areas where I think we've got some sympathies here. We understand what he's trying to do, might even do it a little bit differently, but really respect the willingness to embrace a lot of different perspectives as you bring together the right patchwork quilt. Kevin: The other day you texted me and you said, "Kevin, do you know any great drum solos?" And I YouTubed you a couple that I like. You YouTubed me one back, and I think about rhythm in music. It's interesting to listen to people who think in let's say 16th notes all the time, 8th notes and 16th notes, they're just moving. Greg is a guy who thinks in that high speed trading mentality. Just a couple of weeks ago, you talked to a man who was 88 years old who was with the Bank of England, who was thinking very, very long-term. That's like whole notes or it's a little different type of thinking. David: Unique cadence. Kevin: Yeah. What I like, though, is for the person who's saying, "All right, come on, Dave, let's don't talk about the next 50 years. Let's talk about maybe the next 24 months," Greg's a good guy to listen to because that's how he trades. * * * David: I think it's been at least 15 years since we last spoke. I read your book back in 2007, 2008 on commodity trading in gold. We talked shortly thereafter. Yeah, the world has changed a lot, and then in many respects, it's remained the same, just multiplied. We're more dependent on credit. The consumer has very little cushion. Real wages are still struggling. Those are a few similarities. On the other hand, a few changes have materialized. The dollar's less popular today. Our trade partners are running the same scale surpluses and their penchant for recycling into Treasurys has only eroded. If our conversation was 2008, 2009, national debt was under 10 trillion. Now it's 35. Budget deficit was 700 billion, now it's 1.6 [trillion]—and that's if you like the CBO's estimates. Probably going to be closer to two. Interest expense was, I don't know, 300, 350 billion? Now we're over a trillion. Unemployment was identical to today, which is fascinating. Gregory, what do you see as the similarities and differences from, gosh, it's been 15 years ago? Gregory: Well, that's a good question 'cause we could talk about that for two hours. I would say that the biggest thing that— I always remember somebody that was really brilliant, one of the people in Market Wizards by Jack Schwager—that great book about great traders—was, look, the market's changed. The market's evolved, and definitely technology has been a big part of that since I start...