PODCAST: “Hexapodia” Is þe Key Insight XXV: Afghanistan

"Hexapodia" Is the Key Insight: by Noah Smith & Brad DeLong

Key Insights:

* The Taliban should go to the World Bank and say: “For 42 years now, mechanized, airborne, and infantry armies and air and drone forces have been driving, walking, and flying over our country, killing us. that has done enormous amounts of damage. We are absolutely dirt poor. We will try as hard as we can: please give us money so that we can start call centers, start simple labor-intensive textile factories, and also beef up our handmade rug businesses so that we can export to pay for what we so desperately need. This is our only chance to make the lives of Afghans in the villages and even in Kabul better. This government would rather rule on the basis of honest, good government and prosperity. But if we cannot do that, others in our coalition will grow in power and rule on the basis of jihad.”

* Economics is important for governments, because it allows them to change the kind of government they are—change the relationship of the government to the people, change crazy bad governments into governments that are still bad, but much more oriented towards prosperity and stability.

* Things are not yet at their worst. It’s like when Bart says to Homer, “this is the worst day of my life!” and Homer says, “no, this is the worst day of your life so far.”

* Hexapodia!

References:

* Daron Acemoglu: Why Nation-Building Failed in Afghanistan: ‘The tragedy playing out this month has been 20 years in the making… a top-down state-building strategy that was always destined to fail… <https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/afghanistan-top-down-state-building-failed-again-by-daron-acemoglu-2021-08>

* Costs of War in Afghanistan <https://watson.brown.edu/costsofwar/figures/2021/human-and-budgetary-costs-date-us-war-afghanistan-2001-2022>

* Ryan Crocker (2016): Lessons Learned Interview <https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2019/investigations/afghanistan-papers/documents-database/?document=crocker_ryan_ll_first_interview_01112016>

* Graham Greene (1955): The Quiet American <https://archive.org/details/quietamerican00gree_2/page/n7/mode/2up> (New York: Penguin Books)

* Josh Marshall: The Fall of Kabul, Washington and the Guys at the Fancy Magazines: ‘What we see in so many reactions, claims of disgrace and betrayal are no more than people who have been deeply bought into these endeavors suddenly forced to confront how much of it was simply an illusion… <https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/the-fall-of-kabul-washington-and-the-guys-at-the-fancy-magazines>

* Josh Marshall: You Wouldn’t Know It From the US News Coverage, But…: ’Something that seems to be getting very, very little above-the-fold coverage in the American press coverage: the key leaders of the US backed government over the last two decades are relaxedly meeting with the political leadership of the Taliban in Kabul about the formation of the new government… <https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/you-wouldnt-know-it-from-the-us-news-coverage-but>

* Martin Sandbu: The West Has Paid the Price For Neglecting The Afghan Economy: ‘Per capita incomes flatlined over the past decade and corruption is endemic…

* Jordan Michael Smith: Twenty Years After 9/11, Are We Any Smarter?: ‘Our foreign policy wise people responded to the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks by embracing belligerence. What, if anything, have they learned?… <https://newrepublic.com/article/163119/twenty-year-anniversary-911-attacks>

* Juggalos For Responsible Flushing: ‘Explains a lot about our current situation that Leon Panetta knows so little about Afghanistan that he thinks the Taliban and ISIS are allies…

* Atif Mian: ‘The big injection of foreign money did not translate into sustainable growth. Why?…

+, of course:

* Vernor Vinge: A Fire Upon the Deep <https://books.google.com/books?id=fCCWWgZ7d6UC>

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