Ep41. Iran’s Disorderer-in-Chief Dies; and as Russia Advances, Is Kharkiv at risk of being turned into Mariupol?

Disorder

The sun is shining, the flowers are in bloom, there is a dense fog over the Iranian-Azeri border, what time does that make it? Russo-Ukrainian Summer Offensive Time!

This episode starts with a short emergency-cast about the crash of the Iranian President’s helicopter due to fog. Jason briefly investigates if the death of this ‘disorderer-in-chief’ is likely to bring any more order to the Middle East region, before rejoining our regularly scheduled programming about Ukraine.

Over the last two weeks, Russia has been gaining territory in Ukraine’s northeast, while the shelling of Kharkiv has progressively increased. This does not come as a surprise. The Ukrainians have been on the back foot militarily since their 2023 Summer offensive stalled.

What is the strategic logic of Russia’s recent advance? Jason is joined by acclaimed military historian Saul David. He co-hosts our sister podcast within the Goalhanger network, Battleground. Saul and Jason debate the strategic logic behind Russia’s recent moves – proposing three alternative theses for Russia’s actions: 1) Putin is trying to create a buffer zone in northeastern Ukraine; 2) the current offensive is a faint to draw Ukrainian troops to the north prior to a Russian attack in Donbass; 3) Russia is trying to turn Kharkiv into Mariupol, Grozny, or Aleppo, that is to say to aerially decimate the city and inflict tremendous humanitarian suffering on its populace without any hope of actually conquering it.

After sketching a broad-brush stroke picture of the tactical and strategic situation on the ground, Saul and Jason discuss how new shipments of Western armaments will affect the current fighting; recent Russian attempts to assassinate President Zelensky; if the murder of Navalny has changed battlefield dynamics at all; the role of China and the ongoing Gaza war upon the fighting in Ukraine; and what are the relevant historical parallels to the current fighting and what lessons they hold for orderers.

Twitter: @DisorderShow

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Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/

Producer: George McDonagh

Exec Producer: Neil Fearn

Show Notes Links

For a quick overview of Iranian President Raisi’s death and what happens next: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/20/world/europe/raisi-iran-instability.html

Listen to Goalhanger’s excellent Battleground Pod here: https://www.goalhangerpodcasts.com/battleground

Get Saul’s Sunday Times bestselling book, Sky Warriors: British Airborne Forces in the Second World War, here:

https://www.amazon.co.uk/Sky-Warriors-British-Airborne-Forces/dp/0008522162

Learn more about what is going on:

Is the Russian offensive a faint? Read more here: https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/05/16/russias-victory-day-campaign-just-ran-into-a-wall-of-ukrainian-mechanized-troops/

More on Tactics and Armaments affecting development in Kharkiv: https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/05/15/russia-kharkiv-offensive-ukraine-vovchansk-weapons-biden/

For more on Blinken’s visit to Kyiv: https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/may/14/ukraine-zelenskiy-calls-for-more-air-defences-as-blinken-arrives-in-kyiv

And on the Russian plot to assassinate Zelensky: https://www.newsweek.com/zelensky-assassination-plot-foiled-1897852

Find out more on Ukraine's will to survive and defend Kharkiv from Jade McGlynn:

Her recent Pod with Arthur Snell:

https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/behind-the-lines-with-arthur-snell/id1704344656?i=1000653710733

And her Dispatch from Kharkiv commemorating the 2 year anniversary of the war: https://engelsbergideas.com/notebook/despatch-from-kharkiv/

Finally, Jason and Bill Browder’s ideas on the need for a seizure of Frozen Russian asset via Navalny acts: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/opinion/what-makes-a-martyr-alexei-navalny-shines-a-light-on-vladimir-putin-s-evil-tyranny/ar-BB1ja4If

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