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Kandungan disediakan oleh Lux Capital. Semua kandungan podcast termasuk episod, grafik dan perihalan podcast dimuat naik dan disediakan terus oleh Lux Capital atau rakan kongsi platform podcast mereka. Jika anda percaya seseorang menggunakan karya berhak cipta anda tanpa kebenaran anda, anda boleh mengikuti proses yang digariskan di sini https://ms.player.fm/legal.
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We Have The Receipts
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1 Love Is Blind S8: Pods & Sober High Thoughts w/ Courtney Revolution & Meg 1:06:00
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Happy Valentine’s Day! You know what that means: We have a brand new season of Love Is Blind to devour. Courtney Revolution (The Circle) joins host Chris Burns to delight in all of the pod romances and love triangles. Plus, Meg joins the podcast to debrief the Madison-Mason-Meg love triangle. Leave us a voice message at www.speakpipe.com/WeHaveTheReceipts Text us at (929) 487-3621 DM Chris @FatCarrieBradshaw on Instagram Follow We Have The Receipts wherever you listen, so you never miss an episode. Listen to more from Netflix Podcasts.…
Riskgaming
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Kandungan disediakan oleh Lux Capital. Semua kandungan podcast termasuk episod, grafik dan perihalan podcast dimuat naik dan disediakan terus oleh Lux Capital atau rakan kongsi platform podcast mereka. Jika anda percaya seseorang menggunakan karya berhak cipta anda tanpa kebenaran anda, anda boleh mengikuti proses yang digariskan di sini https://ms.player.fm/legal.
A podcast by venture capital firm Lux Capital on the opportunities and risks of science, technology, finance and the human condition. Hosted by Danny Crichton from our New York City studios.
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140 episod
Tandakan semua sebagai (belum) dimainkan
Manage series 3337582
Kandungan disediakan oleh Lux Capital. Semua kandungan podcast termasuk episod, grafik dan perihalan podcast dimuat naik dan disediakan terus oleh Lux Capital atau rakan kongsi platform podcast mereka. Jika anda percaya seseorang menggunakan karya berhak cipta anda tanpa kebenaran anda, anda boleh mengikuti proses yang digariskan di sini https://ms.player.fm/legal.
A podcast by venture capital firm Lux Capital on the opportunities and risks of science, technology, finance and the human condition. Hosted by Danny Crichton from our New York City studios.
…
continue reading
140 episod
Semua episod
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Riskgaming
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1 How America holds it all together 40:28
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There are two sides of America. One is the country’s world-leading innovation centers, which offer the highest salaries and potential wealth creation anywhere in the world. The other is the bleak deindustrialized hinterlands where former mines and factories once dotted the landscape. Here, middle class jobs have been casualized or wiped out entirely, leaving behind a depressing and well-trodden tale of economic loss. Joining host Danny Crichton and Riskgaming director of programming Laurence Pevsner is Michael Beckley , a professor at Tufts University and the author of the recent essay, “The Strange Triumph of a Broken America.” He argues that the decentralized institutions that make America strong are also precisely its most vulnerable feature. Creative destruction is extremely useful in fast-moving fields like software, but is anathema to building an industrial base where capital assets are key. How can America balance between the two without losing both? We talk about the vagaries of America’s domestic and foreign policies, how to balance decentralization with creating pathways toward greater prosperity, whether America is returning to isolationism and finally, what we can do with left behind regions to return them to prominence and success. Produced by Christopher Gates Music by George Ko…
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Riskgaming
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1 Luck rules our lives, so why don’t we teach more about it? 36:02
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Cruel, petty and occasionally magnanimous, fates rule our lives, determining everything from our careers and romances to our financial success. Despite a burgeoning academic literature studying luck and the occasional theoretical probabilist complaining about Bayesian statistics, we haven’t brought the chance of chaotic complex systems into the classroom, and that’s particularly true in political science and international relations. That should change, and play-based learning offer new forms of education for future generations. Joining host Danny Crichton and Riskgaming director of programming Laurence Pevsner is Nicholas Rush Smith , director of the Master’s Program in International Affairs at The City College of New York and its Graduate Center. His students graduate into plum assignments across international organizations like the United Nations, and he has been increasingly utilizing simulations and experiential learning to transform how future international civil servants learn their craft. We talk about Nick’s recent experience playing “ Powering Up ,” our Riskgaming scenario focused on China’s electric vehicle market. Then we talk about the power of play, how dopamine affects the learning cycle, why losing is the best education for winning, David Graeber’s ideas around the balance between rules and play, and finally, how play-based learning can teach principles used in even the most bureaucratic institutions like the United Nations and the U.S. Army. Produced by Christopher Gates Music by George Ko…
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Riskgaming
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1 How Russia is bringing the cost of global sabotage to zero 38:34
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When Russia launched its war on Ukraine in early 2022, it became the first land battle on European soil since World War II. Warfare has changed dramatically since then — from first-person view drones to AI-mediated strategic communications, as well as intelligence gathering and operations — and yet, critical continuities remain between Russia’s present and past strategies and tactics. To learn more, Riskgaming host Danny Crichton interviewed Daniela Richterova , who is Senior Lecturer in Intelligence Studies at the Department of War Studies, King's College London. She has been researching the history and contemporary practices of Russia’s overseas intelligence missions and recently co-authored a paper on how Russia is using a gig-economy model to hire agent-saboteurs in the field, sometimes for as little as a few hundred dollars. This new operational model has allowed Russia to dramatically scale up its attacks on infrastructure and other high-priority targets at minimal cost despite overseas sanctions. Daniela discusses the continuities in doctrine between the KGB and today’s Russian FSB, how agent training has evolved over the decades, why the gig economy has been so effective for Russia, what Russia seeks to target and why, and finally, the risk calculus and cultural differences between Russian political and espionage leaders and those of other nations. Produced by Christopher Gates Music by George Ko…
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Riskgaming
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1 Can you (or DOGE) product manage the government? 41:27
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There’s a growing movement to apply the best practices of technology to the U.S. government. Whether it’s Elon Musk and DOGE (the so-called Department of Government Efficiency) or the myriad of chief technology and data officers across all levels of government, the hope is that technology can enhance productivity and minimize errors, offering a better experience with government for all Americans. Few people have the wealth of experience on this front than our guest today, Christine Keung . She has a tech industry background from Dropbox and her current role as a partner at J2 Ventures, but also a lengthy tenure across party lines, from working in China with Ambassador Max Baucus, to becoming the Chief Data Officer of San Jose, California, to helping launch the Paycheck Protection Program at the Small Business Administration. Alongside host Danny Crichton and Riskgaming Director of Programming Laurence Pevsner , we talk about her recent experience playing Powering Up — our Riskgaming scenario on the Chinese electric vehicle market — her experiences in government and the challenges of modernization, and then finally, we turn to DeepSeek and the U.S.-China competition that has splashed across the front pages the past week. Produced by Chris Gates Music by George Ko…
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1 The on-going collapse of the global commons 26:58
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It’s been a bad few months (and years and decades) for the global commons. Chinese trawlers have repeatedly knocked out internet cables in international waters. Outer space is being militarized by Russia and others, threatening the demilitarized posture adopted by the Outer Space Treaty. Chinese hackers are using cyber weapons to infiltrate the U.S. Treasury through the Salt Typhoon hacks, while Antarctica is being explored by multiple militaries in contravention of the peace proposed in the the Antarctic Treaty. Then there’s the decline of the information commons, where paywalls increasingly move critical news and data out of reach of citizens. In short, the global commons is losing primacy. Friend of the podcast Scott Bade highlighted this theme for geopolitical strategy firm Eurasia Group’s annual Top Risks report, and we decided to follow up with our own Riskgaming conversation. So Danny Crichton and Laurence Pevsner teamed up to talk through the global commons and what’s endangering it. We discuss the privatization and securitization of the commons, how post-World War II institutions are buckling under new pressures from rising powers, why technology is both helping and hurting, and finally, what America can do as a nation to stay open under threat. Produced by Chris Gates Music by George Ko…
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Riskgaming
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1 Which companies will suffer with globalization’s reversal? 37:09
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The Washington Consensus of the past few decades that called for open markets, free trade and reduced regulation will officially die on Monday as Trump re-takes the presidency with a radically different economic program. Free trade is out and tariffs are in; globalization is dead and national sovereignty is the rule of the day. Such a change has massive implications for companies all around the world, many of whom have designed their corporate strategies for a global world. Who is affected, particularly when it comes to U.S.-China relations in the years ahead? That’s where Isaac Stone Fish comes in. He’s the CEO and founder of Strategy Risks , a data and research company that helps companies and regulators understand and reduce alternative forms of risk. He’s particularly noted for his China expertise, and his firm publishes the SR250 ranking, which highlights the largest American companies with the deepest ties with China, encompassing everything from financing and supply-chain interlinkages to public communications. Fish joins host Danny Crichton and Riskgaming director of programming Laurence Pevsner to talk about Trump’s imminent arrival, why Ford is the most China-entwined company in the U.S., how China overtook the U.S. in electric vehicles, why American defense contractors are surprisingly engaged in China trade, why we might already be at war with China, how CEOs are managing these new strategic risks and finally, what the biotech and social media industries must do going forward in a more fractured world. Produced by Chris Gates Music by George Ko…
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1 Why financial booms and busts are the key to our progress 44:47
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When we think of booms and busts, we often think of waste. The dot-com bubble, the 2008 financial crisis, and the late 2010s crypto craze drew insane levels of capital into new markets, proceeded to overheat them, and then vaporized everything — leaving a trail of destruction in their wake. Is there a more positive way of looking at these feverish moments of economic activity though, one that accounts for progress? That’s the question at the heart of Byrne Hobart and Tobias Huber ’s new book Boom from Stripe Press . They argue that far from being a destructive force, booms are in fact the critical ingredient needed to induce change in companies, institutions and people. For the low price of the dot-com bubble, we got some of the world’s greatest and more valuable companies, whose worth dwarfs the original cost of the bubble by multiples. Progress can be brought forward in time by the exuberance of these heady eras. Host Danny Crichton talks with Byrne and Tobias about what booms are and what they do, how economic progress is triggered through business cycles, the cultural spillovers of periods of change, why we should stop being concerned about the scarcity of capital and how to avoid zero-sum thinking in the economics of growth. Produced by Chris Gates Music by George Ko…
It’s been a year for the record books, and so it is with the Riskgaming podcast. We published 68 episodes this year across our main show and The Orthogonal Bet sub-series with Sam Arbesman (which we will have more to share next year!). We’ve had technologists, spies, policymakers, CEOs, authors, artists and all around renaissance wunderkinds on the show this year, and so we wanted to take a step back and highlight the best moments of some of our episodes. With host Danny Crichton narrating, here’s the best 11 moments from 2024 as we head into the holidays. Produced by Chris Gates Music by George Ko…
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1 Introducing our new scenario, “Powering Up” 36:59
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We are really excited to announce the publication of our third and latest Riskgaming scenario, "Powering Up: China’s Global Quest for Electric Vehicle Dominance.” Designed by Ian Curtiss over the course of the last year, we started beta trials of the game a few months ago with dozens of playtesters and just hosted launch runthroughs across the United States in NYC, DC and SF as well as a worldwide tour in London, Romania and Tokyo. It was great fun bringing together dozens of policymakers, tech executives and journalists over the past few weeks. While we previewed Powering Up on an episode back in October, now that we have played the game with so many diverse groups, we wanted to talk about some of the lessons learned from its design, the patterns of strategies we’ve witnessed among players and the wider implications of those strategies for how the world will change in the years ahead. So we gathered together host Danny Crichton , Riskgaming director of programming Laurence Pevsner and Ian himself live in our Menlo Park studio to talk about all the results. Come tune in, and then sign up so you can play the next scenario we release in 2025.…
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1 Why does America have the most expensive elevators in the world? 42:09
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Recently in the Riskgaming newsletter ( “The Productivity Precipice” ), host Danny Crichton wrote about one of the biggest challenges facing America: how many of our industries — and particularly those in construction and building — are becoming some of the least-efficient in the industrialized world. Today’s podcast episode identifies yet another problem, and it regards elevators. Elevators aren’t just a conveyance of convenience, they are also crucial infrastructure for millions of Americans who struggle with mobility and anyone who has ever carried heavy luggage or groceries in or out of a building. Yet, the cost of America’s elevators is often multiple times more expensive than similar elevators in Europe and certainly Asia. Why? That’s what we’ll discuss today with Stephen Smith , the executive director of the Center for Building , a think tank that studies building codes in global comparative context. His viral op-ed in The New York Times earlier this year has been read by everyone, and he’s continuing to do more research on how zoning and building codes collaborate to drive up prices for everyone. We’ll talk about that, as well as why America remains so suburban, the insider interests and negotiations that constrain construction efficiency, and why the West Coast is particularly bad for overhead.…
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1 The Titanic Lessons of VC with Josh Wolfe 30:57
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Every quarter, Lux sends an update to our limited partners observing the macroeconomic environment, the changes in venture capital, and our current thinking regarding the present and future of science and technology. This time, we focused on “Titanic Lessons,” four classic parables from Greek mythology that elucidate our understanding of the world. Joining host Danny Crichton is letter writer Josh Wolfe , co-founder and managing partner of Lux Capital. Whether it is Prometheus offering fire as a form of “extensionalism” that expands the bounds of human powers, or Atlas taking on the burdens of the world in pursuit of the next intrepid voyage, Josh discusses how new technologies can rapidly augment human potential — but only if they are unlocked and unleashed. Unfortunately, so many of the world’s best innovators remain shackled in research labs and corporate offices without the resources and autonomy to succeed. That’s where our four investment strategies of Lux Labs, corporate spin-offs, tactical global opportunities and fixware come in. We discuss the potential of each in turn. Then there’s a wider set of warnings from Epimetheus and Menoetius, two Greek Titans whose arrogance and hubris would prove their downfall. We bring them up in the course of discussing the future of AI infrastructure, its expansive energy needs, the power of decentralized compute technologies and finally, the potential for Apple to emerge from behind as an AI winner.…
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Riskgaming
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1 The Orthogonal Bet: Dave Jilk on AI, Poetry, and the Future of AGI 40:35
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Welcome to The Orthogonal Bet, an ongoing mini-series that explores the unconventional ideas and delightful patterns that shape our world. Hosted by Samuel Arbesman . In this episode, Sam speaks with Dave Jilk . Dave is a tech entrepreneur and writer. He’s done a ton: started multiple companies, including in AI, published works of poetry, and written scientific papers. And he’s now written a new book that is an epic poem about the origins of Artificial General Intelligence, told from the perspective of the first such entity. It’s titled Epoch: A Poetic Psy-Phi Saga and is a deeply thoughtful humanistic take on artificial intelligence, chock-full of literary allusions. Sam wanted to speak with Dave to learn more about the origins of Epoch as well as how he thinks about AI more broadly. They discussed the history of AI, how we might think about raising AI, the Great Filter, post-AGI futures and their nature, and whether asking if we should build AGI is even a good question. They even finished this fun conversation with a bit of science fiction recommendations. Produced by Christopher Gates Music by George Ko & Suno…
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1 Elections, global threats and happy hour with the Riskgaming team 38:16
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It’s not every day that we can get our distributed Riskgaming team into one podcast studio, but we actually managed to do it from our NYC base, and with some drinks to boot. Joining host Danny Crichton is Lux’s Riskgaming director of programming Laurence Pevsner and our researcher, part-time columnist and all around utility handyman Michael Magnani. We talk about the U.S. presidential election and which threats from our AI deepfake election security scenario DeepFaked and DeepSixed actually took place — and which didn’t. We then cover Germany’s sputtering industrial economy, the future of the war in Ukraine and trade tensions with China. Finally, we close out with a discussion of the three threats that the world isn’t thinking about today, and what should be done about them.…
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1 The future of defense manufacturing with Anduril CEO Brian Schimpf 40:16
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Anduril has become one of the most-watched companies in Silicon Valley, and for good reason. Its vertiginous rise from small hardware laboratory to next-generation defense prime has entranced engineers and investors alike, and it has also garnered an increasingly long record of success in Washington DC, including its victory in securing the U.S. Air Force’s flagship Collaborative Combat Aircraft contract earlier this year. Yet for co-founder and CEO Brian Schimpf, the real magic of Anduril has been its ability to scale design, manufacturing and its culture from a dozen early employees to more than 4,000 today. Brian’s maniacal focus has been on ensuring that Anduril never becomes a legacy defense prime ploddingly delivering half-baked products to the disappointed faces of warfighters. Instead, he and his team have tenaciously strategized on business models, contract negotiations, tuck-in M&A, engineering culture and manufacturing centralization and decentralization to ensure that Anduril always offers the highest-quality and most cost-effective products in the marketplace. Alongside Lux’s own Josh Wolfe, Brian talks about his own founding journey at Anduril, the company’s burgeoning portfolio of products, and how it’s rebuilding the arsenal of democracy in the years ahead through clever and strategic leadership.…
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1 The Orthogonal Bet: Embracing Second Acts with Henry Oliver 40:08
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Welcome to The Orthogonal Bet, an ongoing mini-series that explores the unconventional ideas and delightful patterns that shape our world. Hosted by Samuel Arbesman . In this episode, Sam speaks with the writer Henry Oliver . Henry is the author of the fantastic new book Second Act . This book is about the idea of late bloomers and professional success later in life, and more broadly how to think about one’s career, and Sam recently reviewed it for The Wall Street Journal. Sam really enjoyed this book and wanted to have a chance to discuss it with Henry. Henry and Sam had a chance to talk about a lot of topics, beginning with how to actually define late bloomers and what makes a successful second act possible, from experimentation to being ready when one’s moment arrives. They also explored why society doesn’t really accept late bloomers as much as one might want it to, how to think about the complexity of cognitive decline, what the future of retirement might look like, along with many examples of late bloomers—from Margaret Thatcher to Ray Kroc. Produced by Christopher Gates Music by George Ko & Suno…
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1 The energy economics of our civilization’s digital cathedrals 44:15
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The sudden widespread usage of advanced artificial intelligence models has massively increased global demand for data centers that can handle inference and training. That’s been a boon for Nvidia’s stock, but it has also added massive new demands to our energy grid. Microsoft recently announced that it intends to re-open the ill-fated Three Mile Island nuclear power plant, while Google has announced investments and partnerships with nuclear startups like Kairos Power. Yet, much of the obvious analysis of this market is far less obvious than meets the eye, or at least the eyes of Mark Mills . Across decades of studying the energy markets, Mark is currently a distinguished senior fellow at the Texas Public Policy Foundation, the executive director of the National Center for Energy Analytics, and a contributing editor of the Manhattan Institute’s City Journal. We talk about the contradictions in much of today’s energy analysis, including the misdirection of attention toward AI instead of traditional compute which vastly dwarfs it; the misapplication of economic development incentives by cities and state to data center construction; and the misunderstanding of energy transitions — a mirage according to Mark since we are always seeking to expand all forms of energy to power our civilization.…
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1 The Orthogonal Bet: How deep science ventures redefines deep tech innovation 42:52
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Welcome to The Orthogonal Bet, an ongoing mini-series that explores the unconventional ideas and delightful patterns that shape our world. Hosted by Samuel Arbesman . In this episode, Sam speaks with Dominic Falcao, a founding director of Deep Science Ventures (DSV), which he created in 2016 after leading Imperial College London’s science startup program. Deep Science Ventures takes a principled and problem-based approach to founding new deep tech startups. They have even created a PhD program for scientists specifically geared towards helping them create new companies. Sam wanted to speak with Dom to discuss the origins of Deep Science Ventures, as well as how to think about scientific and technological progress more broadly, and even how to conceive new research organizations. Dom and Sam had a chance to discuss tech trees and the combinatorial nature of scientific and technological innovation, non-traditional research organizations, Europe’s tech innovation ecosystem, what scientific amphibians are, and the use of AI in the realm of deep tech. Produced by Christopher Gates Music by George Ko & Suno…
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1 Introducing our new scenario, DeepFaked and DeepSixed 26:55
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We’re really excited to talk about the launch of our second public Riskgaming scenario, “DeepFaked and DeepSixed: AI Election Security and the Future of Democracy.” DeepFaked and DeepSixed is a bit different from our previous political and economic simulations, which tend toward groups of 4-8 people negotiating, haggling and cajoling over the course of several hours. Instead, this game centers on an intelligence fusion center at the White House where 54 people come together to offer information and to seek out patterns of threats against American democracy. Player roles come from across government, international organizations, the private sector and non-profits, and are designed to offer both a crisp backstory as well as essential clues relevant to that character’s background. Everyone cooperates against the clock to identify critical threats before it is too late. Lux’s director of programming Laurence Pevsner (who is making his Riskgaming podcast debut) and host Danny Crichton talk about the design of the game, what triggered its creation and the lessons we learned from two runthroughs in New York and Washington this week (including which city did better to protect American elections).…
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1 The Orthogonal Bet: Exploring the history of intelligence 45:13
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Welcome to The Orthogonal Bet, an ongoing mini-series that explores the unconventional ideas and delightful patterns that shape our world. Hosted by Samuel Arbesman . In this episode, Sam speaks with writer, researcher, and entrepreneur Max Bennett . Max is the cofounder of multiple AI companies and the author of the fascinating book A Brief History of Intelligence : Evolution, AI, and the Five Breakthroughs That Made Our Brains. This book offers a deeply researched look at the nature of intelligence and how biological history has led to this phenomenon. It explores aspects of evolution, the similarities and differences between AI and human intelligence, many features of neuroscience, and more. Produced by Christopher Gates Music by George Ko & Suno…
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1 Previewing our upcoming Riskgaming scenario, “Powering Up: China’s Global Quest for Electric Vehicle Dominance” 26:45
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The automobile industry is one of the most pivotal in the world, both due to its scale and its nexus at the heart of the manufacturing systems in countries such as the United States, Germany, Japan, Korea and China. There’s a massive transformation of the industry underway as consumers transition from internal combustion engines to electric vehicles, and China is increasingly leading the way with innovative and affordable cars from the likes of BYD and others. How will the future of the industry change, and how do the political dynamics of China’s leadership affect which countries will win — and which will falter? Our upcoming Riskgaming scenario, “Powering Up: China’s Global Quest for Electric Vehicle Dominance,” simulates this complex business environment by fusing the transition from ICEs to EVs with the opaque vagaries of China’s national security and industrial policies. It’s designed by Ian Curtiss , who lived and worked in China for many years before decamping to Arizona and continuing to build a series of tabletop games covering everything from the geopolitics of the modern world to the politics of medieval Europe on the Iberian Peninsula. Ian and host Danny Crichton talk about “Powering Up” and its design, how the tradeoffs in the game can inform decision-making in the real world, and why people are so engaged with the Riskgaming model of gameplay.…
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1 The Orthogonal Bet: The role of complexity in world-building 38:30
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Welcome to The Orthogonal Bet, an ongoing mini-series that explores the unconventional ideas and delightful patterns that shape our world. Hosted by Samuel Arbesman . In this episode, the Sam speaks with novelist Lev Grossman . A longtime fan of Lev’s novels, the host delves into his works, including The Magicians trilogy —a splendid set of books about a university for magic, fantastical worlds, and much more. These books are amazing. Lev’s newest book is the novel The Bright Sword , a retelling of the legends of King Arthur, particularly focusing on what happens after Arthur dies. The Sam devoured The Bright Sword and found it fascinating. It’s a book that weaves together ideas about gods and magic, the layering of myths across history, and much more—all topics explored in the conversation with Lev. Lev and Sam discuss the story of King Arthur, its gaps and its history, the layering of gods and stories over time, the nature of magic and religion, the importance of secondary worlds, and the magic in The Magicians versus the magic of The Bright Sword. They even have a chance to discuss Lev’s next project, which is a space opera. This episode was a lot of fun. Produced by CRG Consulting Music by George Ko & Suno…
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1 The dangers of our rapidly narrowing understanding of China 48:26
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China’s pivot from open to closed over the past decade has been striking. It wasn’t so long ago that tens of thousands of students and thousands of journalists and researchers were living and studying in the country, with multitudes of ambitious business executives spread across the nation’s financial capitals. Now, the number of Americans traveling and living in China has hit another low. With less grounded information, what are Americans missing about its most important trade partner and its growing adversary? Randal Phillips knows the crisis better than anyone. The former chief CIA representative in China and a 28-year veteran of the agency’s Directorate of Operations, he retired for the world of business consulting, focusing on answering key geopolitical and business landscape questions for global clients. He was also vice chairman of the American Chamber of Commerce in China. Now, he’s increasingly concerned about the closing of the country’s borders and information systems, making it increasingly challenging for executives and political leaders to understand what they don’t know. Randal and host Danny Crichton talk about the recent Department of Justice indictment against the Sinaloa drug cartel and underground Chinese money launderers, and then we cover the fentanyl crisis, the shrinking space for information and due diligence firms on China’s economy, the challenges of operating on the mainland and the CIA’s operations, and finally, what the prognosis is for China’s economy in the years ahead.…
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1 The Orthogonal Bet: The Wonders of Graph Paper and Algorithmic Art 44:36
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Welcome to The Orthogonal Bet, an ongoing mini-series that explores the unconventional ideas and delightful patterns that shape our world. Hosted by Samuel Arbesman . In this episode, Sam speaks with Alex Miller , a software developer and artist known for his work on a project called Spacefiller . This project exemplifies generative art, where computer code is used to create art and imagery. Spacefiller itself is a pixelated form of artwork that feels organic and biological, but is entirely crafted through algorithms. Sam invited Alex to discuss not only Spacefiller, but also the broader world of generative art, and the concept of coding as a fun and playful activity. Together, they explore topics such as the distinction between computation as art and computation as software engineering, the nature of algorithmic botany, and even the wonders of graph paper. Produced by CRG Consulting Music by George Ko & Suno…
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1 Even with China’s rise, America’s best days are ahead 44:15
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China’s vertiginous rise over the past three decades has finally dawned on the Washington DC foreign policy blob. The hopes and dreams of China’s reform-and-opening period have transitioned to the fear and loathing of the Xi era, triggering broad concerns about America’s standing in the world today and in the future. Are we falling behind China in economic performance, research, dynamism and talent? Are America’s best days behind it? For Dmitri Alperovitch , the answer is an emphatic “no.” The co-founder and former CTO of cybersecurity firm Crowdstrike and the co-author of this year’s “World on the Brink: How America Can Beat China in the Race for the Twenty-First Century,” Alperovitch believes that the United States already has all the qualities to extend Pax Americana for another century. In his view, there is far too much cynicism in DC these days, and not enough of the optimism for the future that he bears with him from years as an entrepreneur and as an immigrant from the former Soviet Union. Alperovitch and host Danny Crichton discuss the qualities that America still has going for it, and how the media overemphasizes negative trends at the expense of a more holistic picture of America’s performance. We then talk about upgrading the Defense Department, the need for better procurement around emerging technologies, the advent of software complementing hardware on the battlefield, and the lessons we can learn from Ukraine’s experience fighting Russia.…
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1 The Orthogonal Bet: Complex economics is applying complex systems methods 40:42
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Welcome to The Orthogonal Bet, an ongoing mini-series that explores the unconventional ideas and delightful patterns that shape our world. Hosted by Samuel Arbesman . In this episode, Sam speaks with J. Doyne Farmer , a physicist, complexity scientist, and economist. Doyne is currently the Director of the Complexity Economics program at the Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School and the Baillie Gifford Professor of Complex Systems Science at the Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment at the University of Oxford. Doyne is also the author of the fascinating new book “Making Sense of Chaos: A Better Economics for a Better World.” Sam wanted to explore Doyne’s intriguing history in complexity science, his new book, and the broader field of complexity economics. Together, they discuss the nature of simulation, complex systems, the world of finance and prediction, and even the differences between biological complexity and economic complexity. They also touch on Doyne’s experience building a small wearable computer in the 1970s that fit inside a shoe and was designed to beat the game of roulette. Produced by CRG Consulting Music by George Ko & Suno…
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1 The Orthogonal Bet: Artificial Life and Robotic Evolution 42:44
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Welcome to The Orthogonal Bet, an ongoing mini-series that explores the unconventional ideas and delightful patterns that shape our world. Hosted by Samuel Arbesman . In this episode, Sam speaks with Tarin Ziyaee , a technologist and founder, about the world of artificial life. The field of artificial life explores ways to describe and encapsulate aspects of life within software and computer code. Tarin has extensive experience in machine learning and AI, having worked at Meta and Apple, and is currently building a company in the field of Artificial Life. This new company—which, full disclosure, Sam is also advising—aims to embody aspects of life within software to accelerate evolution and develop robust methods for controlling robotic behavior in the real world. Sam wanted to speak with Tarin to discuss the nature of artificial life, its similarities and differences to more traditional artificial intelligence approaches, the idea of open-endedness, and more. They also had a chance to chat about tool usage and intelligence, large language models versus large action models, and even robots. Produced by CRG Consulting Music by George Ko & Suno…
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1 From Satellites to Submarines: The Power of Open Source Intelligence in Global Conflict 26:22
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In this episode of the RISKGAMING Podcast, host Danny Crichton sits down with columnist Michael Magnani to dissect the explosive rise of legalized sports betting in America and its far-reaching consequences. The conversation then pivots to broader geopolitical topics, including the role of open-source intelligence in modern warfare and how technology is changing the defense landscape. They wrap the episode up with a look at Japan’s election results and the shifting political dynamics that could alter the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific.…
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1 Josh Wolfe: Our new world order is one where algorithms can wield as much influence as armies 32:45
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Science is the world’s greatest force for progress, but how are the people and institutions that compose this critical activity performing? More specifically, how well is American science competing as more and more countries focus on sci-tech supremacy as a key aspect of building power? The frontiers of technology are determinative of destiny, and so who is pushing those boundaries furthest is crucial to understand. Those questions and more are what Lux Capital’s co-founder and managing partnerJosh Wolfe and Riskgaming host Danny Crichton talk about. Riffing on Lux’s most recent LP quarterly letter, which emphasized the tension between the nihilist antihero of V for Vendetta against the collaborative community at the heart of scientific progress, the two debate the promise of greater prosperity against the concerning signals of stagnation that are talked about relentlessly in the press. Among the other topics the two discuss are why scientists continue to compete so ferociously for recognition; the sins of human nature; why the cultures of labs, schools and nations is so vital for progress; recent capital market changes particularly around interest rates; AI’s influence in the sciences; and finally, how VCs will make money in AI — and how they can also lose tens of billions of dollars as valuations evaporate.…
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1 The Orthogonal Bet: From Online Communities to In-Person Programming 36:50
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Welcome to The Orthogonal Bet, an ongoing mini-series that explores the unconventional ideas and delightful patterns that shape our world. Hosted by Samuel Arbesman . In this conversation, he speaks with Omar Rizwan , a programmer currently working on Folk Computer . Omar has a longstanding interest in user interfaces in computing and is now focused on creating physical interfaces that enable computing in a more communal and tangible way—think of moving sheets of paper in the real world and projecting images onto surfaces. Folk Computer is an open-source project that explores a new type of computing in this vein. Samuel engages with Omar on a range of topics, from Folk Computer and the broader space of user interfaces, to the challenges of building computer systems and R&D organizations. Their conversation covers how Omar thinks about code and artificial intelligence, the world of physical computing, and his childhood experiences with programming, including the significance of meeting another programmer in person for the first time. Produced by CRG Consulting Music by George Ko & Suno…
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1 The how and why of the most successful supply-chain attack in history 48:12
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This week, Hezbollah fighters in Lebanon were injured and killed by the thousands across two waves of attacks when their pagers and walkie-talkies exploded. Presumably orchestrated by Israel, it’s one of the most complex and successful supply-chain attacks in world history, and it has mesmerized the global espionage community. We wanted to go deeper into supply-chain risks, and so we brought Nick Reese onto the Riskgaming podcast to talk more. Nick was the inaugural director of emerging technology policy at the US Department of Homeland Security, where he developed policies across cybersecurity, artificial intelligence, quantum computing and more. Today, he’s the CEO and founder of his own business, Frontier Foundry Corporation , as well as a faculty member at New York University. Nick and host Danny Crichton talk about the attack on Hezbollah and consider the networked challenges of securing supply chains for the United States. The two then swing wider to the national security challenges inherent in emerging technologies and how public-private partnerships are mitigating some of those risks.…
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1 The Orthogonal Bet: The Art of Naming 30:30
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Welcome to The Orthogonal Bet, an ongoing mini-series that explores the unconventional ideas and delightful patterns that shape our world. Hosted by Samuel Arbesman . In this episode, Sam speaks with Eli Altman , the managing director of A Hundred Monkeys, a company that specializes in the art of naming. A Hundred Monkeys works with clients to come up with the perfect name for a company, product, or anything else that requires a name. The art of naming is a fascinating subject. Throughout human history, the power of names has been a recurring theme in stories and religion. A well-crafted name has the ability to evoke emotions and associations in a profoundly impactful way. Sam invited Eli to the show because he has been immersed in this field for decades, growing up with a father who specialized in naming. The conversation explores the intricacies of this art, how experts balance competing considerations when crafting a name, the different types of names, and what makes a name successful. They also discuss the importance of writing and storytelling in naming, the impact of AI on the field, and much more. Produced by Christopher Gates Music by George Ko & Suno…
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1 AI is spiking chip design costs – can it solve them too? 26:34
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The old adage of “If you build it, they will come” might be translated into chip design better as, “You can’t build it, since they don’t exist.” The small but crucial profession of chip design used to be a quieter niche within the broader semiconductor market, with just a handful of companies hiring PhD grads. Now, with trillion-dollar companies like Apple, Google, Meta and more all looking to develop custom silicon, securing chip designers is suddenly an ultra-competitive business — and wages are soaring. At its source is the rise of artificial intelligence and the need for custom silicon to improve the performance-to-power ratio in contexts ranging from mobile devices to data centers. Apple’s launch this week of its new iPhone 16 line is a case in point: years of design work have afforded Apple the ability to deliver its “Apple Intelligence” product with on-device inference with relatively minimal effect on battery life. Now, dozens of more companies want to compete in this bubbly market and beyond. Lux general partner Shahin Farshchi and host Danny Crichton talk about the evolution of chip design and how an incumbent oligopoly of electronic design automation companies are now facing new competition from AI-driven competitors. We talk about the history of the EDA market and why custom silicon is really a reversion to historical norms, why designing chips hasn’t changed much in decades and is now rapidly changing for the first time, how large tech companies are using chip design to vertically integrate, the growing exponential complexity of modern chips, and finally, how startups are poised to have access to this market for the first time in a generation. Produced by Christopher Gates Music by George K…
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1 The Orthogonal Bet: How to Navigate Complexity Within a Large Organization 43:10
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Welcome to The Orthogonal Bet, an ongoing mini-series that explores the unconventional ideas and delightful patterns that shape our world. Hosted by Samuel Arbesman . In this episode, Sam speaks with Alex Komoroske , a master of systems thinking. Alex is the CEO and co-founder of a startup building at the intersection of AI, privacy, and open-endedness. Previously, he served as the Head of Corporate Strategy at Stripe, and before that, spent many years at Google, where he worked on the Chrome web platform, ambient computing strategy, Google Maps, Google Earth, and more. The throughline for Alex is his focus on complex systems, which are everywhere: from the Internet to biology, from the organizations we build to society as a whole. These systems consist of networks of countless interacting parts, whether computers or people. Navigating them requires a new mode of thinking, quite different from the top-down rigid planning many impose on the world. Alex is deeply passionate about systems thinking and its broad implications—from making an impact in the world and navigating within and between organizations to understanding undirectedness and curiosity in one’s work. His more bottom-up, improvisational approach to systems thinking reveals insights on a range of topics, from how to approach large tech companies and the value of startups, to a perspective on artificial intelligence that untangles hype from reality. Produced by Christopher Gates Music by George Ko & Suno Show notes: Chapters 00:00 Thinking in Terms of Systems 04:11 The Adjacent Possible and Agency 08:21 Saruman vs. Radagast: Different Leadership Models 13:17 Financializing Value and the Role of Radagasts 21:59 Making Time for Reflection and Leverage 25:18 Different Styles and Time Scales of Impact 28:14 The Challenges of Large Organizations and the Tyranny of the Rocket Equation 34:10 The Potential and Responsibility of Generative AI 45:12 Disrupting Power Structures and Empowering Individuals through Startups Takeaways Embrace the complexity and uncertainty of systems when approaching problem-solving. Shift the focus from individual heroics to collective efforts and systemic thinking. Recognize the value of the Radagast approach in nurturing and growing the potential of individuals and teams. Consider the different dynamics and boundaries within large organizations and startups. Take the time to step back, reflect, and find leverage points for greater impact. Focus on your highest and best use, not just what you're good at, but what leads to something you're proud of. Consider the long-term implications of your actions and whether you would be proud of them in the future. Large organizations can become inefficient and lose focus due to coordination challenges and the tyranny of the rocket equation. Open source can be a powerful force for good, but it can also be used as a control mechanism by larger organizations. Generative AI has the potential to make the boundary between creators and consumers more porous, but responsible implementation is crucial. Startups offer the opportunity to disrupt existing power structures and business models, giving individuals more sovereignty and control over their data. Keywords systems thinking, uncertainty, complexity, individual heroics, collective, leadership, Saruman, Radagast, startups, large organizations, large organizations, values, decision-making, generative AI, startups, data sovereignty…
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1 Silicon Valley’s secret industrial spy war 43:53
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Silicon Valley couldn’t be farther from the confines of Langley or Fort Meade, let alone Beijing or Moscow. Yet, the verdant foothills of suburban sprawl that encompass the Bay Area have played host to some of the most technically sophisticated espionage missions the world has ever seen. As the home of pivotal technologies from semiconductors to databases, artificial intelligence and more, no place has a greater grip on the technological edge than California — and every nation and their intelligence services want access. It just so happens that almost no national security reporter sits on this beat. Nearly all cover the sector from Washington, or in rare cases New York. All except one that is: Zach Dorfman . Zach has been driving the coverage of the technical side of espionage operations for years, and his pathbreaking scoops about China’s unraveling of the CIA’s network of operatives in the early 2010s were widely read in DC officialdom. Now, he’s published two blockbuster features, one in Politico Magazine on the FBI’s attempts to intercede in the chip trade between the U.S. and the U.S.S.R. at the height of the Cold War in the 1980s, and the other in Rolling Stone on a deep-cover agent and the very human consequences of state-to-state skullduggery. Zach and host Danny Crichton talk about Silicon Valley’s history in industrial espionage, the tricky mechanics of intercepting and disabling chip shipments to the Soviet Union, why the U.S.S.R. was so keen on learning the market dynamics of computing in America, the risks for today’s companies around insider threats, Wirecard and Jan Marsalek and finally, some thoughts on Xi Jinping and how China’s rollup of the CIA’s mainland intelligence network affected his leadership of America’s current greatest adversary. Produced by Christopher Gates Music by George Ko…
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1 The Orthogonal Bet: Bio Trajectories and the Importance of Long-Term Thinking 43:12
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Welcome to The Orthogonal Bet, an ongoing mini-series that explores the unconventional ideas and delightful patterns that shape our world. Hosted by Samuel Arbesman . In this episode, Sam speaks with Adrian Tchaikovsky , the celebrated novelist of numerous science fiction and fantasy books, including his Children of Time series, Final Architects series, and The Doors of Eden. Among many other topics, Adrian’s novels often explore evolutionary history, combining “what-if” questions with an expansive view of the possible directions biology can take, with implications for both Earth and alien life. This is particularly evident in The Doors of Eden, which examines alternate potential paths for evolution and intelligence on Earth. Sam was interested in speaking with Adrian to learn how he thinks about evolution, how he builds the worlds in his stories, and how he envisions the far future of human civilization. They discussed a wide range of topics, including short-term versus long-term thinking, terraforming planets versus altering human biology for space, the Fermi Paradox and SETI, the logic of evolution, world-building, and even how advances in AI relate to science fiction depictions of artificial intelligence. Produced by Christopher Gates Music by George Ko & Suno…
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1 How games, god(s) and chance transformed human decision-making 43:16
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Gaming has enveloped our world. A majority of Americans now gamble at least once every year, and popular video games like Fortnite and Roblox count hundreds of millions of global players. In social science, game theory and its descendants remain the mainstay for objectively analyzing human rationality, even as a gigaton of evidence shows the limits of these mathematical approaches. Meanwhile in foreign affairs, wargaming (including some of our very own Riskgaming scenarios !) are used to explore speculative futures that can change the fate of nations. All of these subjects and more are fodder in Playing With Reality: How Games Have Shaped Our World , a broad and open inquiry into the nature of games written by neuroscientist Kelly Clancy . Kelly weaves discussions of dopamine, surprise, chance and learning into a history of human behavioral development over the ages, but then she pivots her discussion. For all of gaming’s success across time and around the world, what are its limits and are we properly critiquing these simulacra of reality? Kelly joins host Danny Crichton to talk about her book and so much more across an extended show that gets at the very heart of Riskgaming. We talk about the history of games, why the theory of probability arrived so late in the development of mathematics, why game theory works mathematically but fails to capture the complexity and dynamism of human behavior, how AI models use gaming techniques like self-play to evolve, and how the world might change given the explosive popularity of interactive gaming in all facets of modern life. Produced by Christopher Gates Music by George Ko…
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1 The Orthogonal Bet: The Harsh Realities of the Soviet Space Program 34:10
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Welcome to The Orthogonal Bet, an ongoing mini-series that explores the unconventional ideas and delightful patterns that shape our world. Hosted by Samuel Arbesman . In this episode, Samuel Arbesman speaks with John Strausbaugh, a former editor of New York Press and the author of numerous history books. John’s latest work is the compelling new book “The Wrong Stuff: How the Soviet Space Program Crashed and Burned.” The book is an eye-opening delight, filled with stories about the Potemkin Village-like space program that the Soviets ran. Beneath the achievements that alarmed the United States, the Soviet space program was essentially a shambling disaster. The book reveals many tales that had been hidden from the public for years. In this conversation, Samuel explores how John became interested in this topic, the nature of the Soviet space program and the Cold War’s Space Race, the role of propaganda, how to think about space programs more generally, and much more. Produced by Christopher Gates Music by George Ko & Suno…
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1 The Orthogonal Bet: Understanding Embodied Intelligence 44:19
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Welcome to The Orthogonal Bet, an ongoing mini-series that explores the unconventional ideas and delightful patterns that shape our world. Hosted by Samuel Arbesman . In this episode, Sam speaks with Michael Levin , a biologist and the Vannevar Bush Professor at Tufts University. Michael’s work encompasses how information is processed in biology, the development of organismal structures, the field of Artificial Life, and much more. Sam wanted to talk to Michael because of his pioneering research in these areas. Biology, as Michael’s work reveals, is far more complex than the mechanistic explanations often taught in school. For instance, the process of morphogenesis—how organisms develop their specific forms—challenges our understanding of computation in biology, and Michael is leading the way in this field. He has deeply explored concepts such as the relationship between hardware and software in biological systems, the process of morphogenesis, the idea of polycomputing, and even the notion of cognition in biology. From his investigations into the regeneration process in planaria—a type of flatworm—to the creation of xenobots, a form of Artificial Life, Michael stands at the forefront of groundbreaking ideas in understanding how biology functions. Produced by Christopher Gates Music by George Ko & Suno…
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1 Radical Uncertainty, Rapid Learning and the Success Equation for Catching Up 47:29
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Global inequality has grown over the past two decades, concentrating an enormous amount of wealth and power on an elite number of individuals, cities, regions and nations all while stranding the vast masses to ignominy and penury. Yet, history is replete with examples of people and places that have caught up — and in some cases even surpassed — once foregone winners, begging the question: how should those left behind today work to catch up? That’s the question that Paul Collier addresses in his new book, “Left Behind: A New Economics for Neglected Places.” Collier is a long-time development economist who has diligently brought the spotlight onto the most impoverished people in the world, calling attention to what he famously dubbed the “bottom billion.” With his new book, he explores why some places that were once terrifically wealthy — think Detroit in America — have fallen behind economically, and what steps are needed to overcome that stagnation. With host Danny Crichton , Collier talks about the economic reversals of places around the world, why evolutionary economics and contributive justice offer new lenses on the problem, how addressing radical uncertainty through rapid learning suggests a path forward, and why global development institutions like the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund remain so recalcitrant in their approaches to aid, particularly in offering agency to those affected by their decisions. Produced by Christopher Gates Music by George Ko…
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1 The Orthogonal Bet: The Quest to Build the Fruitful Web 23:27
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Welcome to The Orthogonal Bet, an ongoing mini-series that explores the unconventional ideas and delightful patterns that shape our world. Hosted by Samuel Arbesman . In this episode, Sam speaks with Laurel Schwulst . Laurel operates within many roles: designer, artist, educator, and technologist. She explores—among other things—the intersection of the human, the computational, and the wonderful. Sam wanted to talk to Laurel because of this intersection and particularly because of how Laurel thinks about the internet. As part of this, she helps to run HTML Day and its celebrations, promotes what is referred to as “HTML Energy,” and is even thinking deeply about what it would mean to create a PBS of the Internet. In other words, the Internet and the web are delightful and special for Laurel, and she wants more of that energy to exist in the world. Produced by Christopher Gates Music by George Ko & Suno…
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1 Industrial literacy and the fate of American progress 39:06
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It’s good and bad times in America. Inflation is down and wages are up in real terms, but there’s a rising challenge: how can we provide the housing, transportation, schooling, health care and amenities that Americans expect when prices for these social services have skyrocketed over the past three decades? Even when new technologies are capable of delivering better services, rules and regulations often stymie their dissemination. America was once the most progressive nation in the world — what happened? Many analysts focus on policies, from zoning and permitting reform to government procurement modernization, that can accelerate the adoption of frontier tech and increase productivity. But Jason Crawford takes a more expansive and longer view of the challenge. As founder and leader of the Roots of Progress Institute and through his on-going publication of The Techno-Humanist Manifesto , Jason emphasizes that we have lost something important: our industrial literacy. America’s leaders no longer understand how prosperity was delivered from the Industrial Revolution onwards, and we’ve lost the ability to rebuild and expand wealth in its broadest conception for the next generation. I talk with Jason about his manifesto and its focus on humanism, and then we walk through some of the major ideas he’s hoping Americans pick up. These range from more progress studies in high schools and colleges as well as a greater understanding about the value that technology delivers for quality of life to the importance of gratitude for our ancestors who delivered this prosperity to us and why technocrats and reactionaries can both be wrong about managing technological change. Produced by Christopher Gates Music by George Ko…
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1 The Orthogonal Bet: : The Art of Cultivating Curiosity 35:55
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Welcome to The Orthogonal Bet, an ongoing mini-series that explores the unconventional ideas and delightful patterns that shape our world. Hosted by Samuel Arbesman . In this episode, Sam speaks with Eliot Peper . Eliot is a science fiction novelist and all-around delightful thinker. Eliot’s books are thrilling tales of the near future, exploring many delightful areas of the world and the frontiers of science and technology. In Eliot’s most recent novel, Foundry , he takes the reader on a journey through the world of semiconductors, from their geopolitical implications to their profoundly weird manufacturing processes. Sam wanted to talk to Eliot to explore this profound strangeness of the manufacturing of computer chips, but also use this as a jumping-off point for something broader: how Eliot discovers these interesting topics and those wondrous worlds that are incorporated into his books. They spoke about the importance of curiosity, as well as concrete ways to cultivate this useful kind of curiosity, which was fascinating. Produced by Christopher Gates Music by George Ko & Suno…
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1 Why engineers are using chaos to make computers more resilient 34:23
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The CrowdStrike meltdown on July 19th shut down the world with one faulty patch — proving once again the interconnected fragility of global IT systems. On Tuesday this week, the company released its Root Cause Analysis as both an explanation and a mea culpa, but the wider question remains: with so much of our lives dependent on silicon and electrons, how can engineers design resilience into their code from the bottoms up? And more importantly, how can we effectively test how resilient our systems actually are? Kolton Andrus is one of the experts on this subject. For years at Amazon and Netflix, he worked on designing fault-tolerant systems, building upon the nascent ideas of the field of chaos engineering, an approach that iteratively and stochastically challenges systems to test for resilience. Now, as CTO and founder of Gremlin , he’s democratizing access to chaos engineering and reliability testing for everyone. Kolton joins host Danny Crichton and Lux’s scientist-in-residence and complexity specialist Sam Arbesman . Together, we talk about why resilience must start at the beginning of product design, how resilience is aligning with security as a core value of developer culture, how computer engineering is maturing as a field, and finally, why we need more technological humility about the interconnections of our global compute infrastructure. Produced by Christopher Gates Music by George Ko…
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1 The Orthogonal Bet: Building a Fractal Combinatorial Trope Machine 45:33
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Welcome to the ongoing mini-series The Orthogonal Bet. Hosted by Samuel Arbesman , a Complexity Scientist, Author, and Scientist in Residence at Lux Capital. In this episode, he speaks with Hilary Mason, co-founder and CEO of Hidden Door, a startup creating a platform for interactive storytelling experiences within works of fiction. Hilary has also worked in machine learning and data science, having built a machine learning R&D company called Fast Forward Labs, which she sold to Cloudera. She was the chief scientist at Bitly and even a computer science professor. Samuel wanted to talk to Hilary not only because of her varied experiences but also because she has thought deeply about how to use AI productively—and far from naively—in games and other applications. She believes that artificial intelligence, including the current crop of generative AI, should be incorporated thoughtfully into software, rather than used without careful examination of its strengths and weaknesses. Additionally, Samuel, who often considers non-traditional research organizations, was eager to get Hilary’s thoughts on this space, given her experience building such an organization. Produced by Christopher Gates Music by George Ko & Suno…
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1 How many trillions in damage would an invasion of Taiwan cost global GDP? 45:47
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When it comes to the so-called DC foreign policy “blob”, few scenarios have been more sketched out, analyzed and wargamed than a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan. President Xi Jinping’s calls for national rejuvenation coupled with Taiwan’s coalescing autonomous identity apart from the mainland is raising the stakes for both sides and the world writ large. Given Taiwan’s centrality to global supply chains, I wanted to understand how the world’s economy would transform if a crisis in the Taiwan Strait were to escalate, and few people understand the topic better than Gerard DiPippo . He’s the Senior Geo-Economics Analyst for Bloomberg Economics, and his research centers on the Chinese and Taiwanese economies and their interlinkages with global value chains. DiPippo and host Danny Crichton walk through different scenarios of what could take place in the Taiwan Strait — from an outright war to a soft embargo — and how we might model the global economic costs of each scenario. We also discuss some of the second-order effects of any conflict in the Strait, from additional sanctions to what goods might substitute for those lost to conflict. Along the way, DiPippo highlights some surprising and counterintuitive findings from his macroeconomic analysis that changes the calculus for all parties involved. Produced by Christopher Gates Music by George Ko…
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1 The Orthogonal Bet: Using Computational Biology to Understand How the Brain Works 35:42
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Welcome to the ongoing mini-series The Orthogonal Bet. Hosted by Samuel Arbesman , a Complexity Scientist, Author, and Scientist in Residence at Lux Capital. In this episode, Sam speaks with Amy Kuceyeski , a mathematician and biologist who is a professor at Cornell University in computational biology, statistics, and data science, as well as in radiology at Weill Cornell Medical College. Amy studies the workings of the human brain, the nature of neurological diseases, and the use of machine learning and neuroimaging to better understand these topics. Sam wanted to talk to Amy because she has been using sophisticated AI techniques for years to understand the brain. She is full of innovative ideas and experiments about how to explore how we process the world, including building AI models that mimic brain processes. These models have deep connections and implications for non-invasively stimulating the brain to treat neurodegenerative diseases or neurological injuries. Produced by Christopher Gates Music by George Ko & Suno…
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1 Evolved Technology: Why technology is counter-intuitively pushing us back to natural products in pharma development 21:21
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The history of pharmaceutical development has traditionally been one of exploration on the frontiers of life on Earth. From fungi to molds, we’ve sourced many of our most important drugs from some of the unlikeliest places, and it’s all due to evolution. Nature’s intense competition and selection forces has made it the ultimate developer of pharmaceuticals, with potential cures lying in wait for someone to find them. Searching nature is expensive though, and thus, pharmaceutical companies re-centered around synthetic chemistry over the past few decades, hoping to realize a more reliable and inexpensive drug discovery model. Unfortunately, we have hit a logjam with such an approach, and the evidence is clear that natural products are often regularly superior to synthetics. We wanted to dive deeper into the future of biopharma, and so we brought together our own Tess Van Stekelenburg and Elliot Hershberg , the writer of Century of Bio , to work on a new two-part mini-series for the Riskgaming podcast, titled Evolved Technology. It’s an extension of a series of talks that Tess and Elliot (“two crazy bio-optimists”) have conducted in SF, and we hope it illuminates a critical scientific frontier with implications for all of us. In this first episode, Tess and Elliot talk about the editing of life; why thousands head to the Himalayas to find tiny caterpillars in the dirt; the business history of natural products in pharma; the transition from natural products to synthetic chemistry; the limitations of our current biochem toolkits; and finally, how AI/ML are bringing us back to the search for natural products using higher-order models. Produced by Christopher Gates Music by George Ko & Suno…
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1 The Orthogonal Bet: What the Microsoft Outage Reveals 10:21
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Welcome to the ongoing mini-series The Orthogonal Bet. Hosted by Samuel Arbesman , a Complexity Scientist, Author, and Scientist in Residence at Lux Capital. In this episode, Sam delves into the recent CrowdStrike/Microsoft outage, providing insights on how to understand this event through the lens of complexity science. The episode was inspired by Sam's very timely post in the Atlantic: "What the Microsoft Outage Reveals" Join us as Sam answers Producer Christopher Gates ’ questions, exploring the intricate web of factors that led to this global system failure and offering a unique perspective on navigating and preventing such crises in the future. Produced by Christopher Gates Music by George Ko & Suno…
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1 The Orthogonal Bet: The Quest to Find the Poetic Web 33:16
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Welcome to the ongoing mini-series The Orthogonal Bet. Hosted by Samuel Arbesman , a Complexity Scientist, Author, and Scientist in Residence at Lux Capital. In this episode, Sam speaks with Kristoffer Tjalve. Kristoffer is hard to categorize, and in the best possible way. However, if one had to provide a description, it could be said that he is a curator and impresario of a burgeoning online community that celebrates the “quiet, odd, and poetic web.” What does this phrase mean? It can mean a lot, but it basically refers to anything that is the opposite of the large, corporate, and bland version of the Internet most people use today. The web that Kristoffer seeks out and tries to promote is playful, small, weird, and deeply human. Even though these features might have been eclipsed by social media and the current version of online experiences, this web—which feels like a throwback to the earlier days of the Internet—is still out there, and Kristoffer works to help cultivate it. He does this through a newsletter , an award , an event , and more. Produced by Christopher Gates Music by George Ko & Suno…
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The media world has been rocked by artificial intelligence, labor strife, the creator economy, the decimation of business models and so much more. But sometimes it's not collapse and crisis that's the most interesting story, but rather just another day of a assiduously growing a platform. That's the story I want to talk about today on risk gaming, and we're going to zoom in on Medium . It's a venerable media business founded by Ev Williams all the way back in 2012. And one that has become notorious for its pivoting dance to a brighter media future. But under Tony Stubblebine who became CEO two years ago. The company has reached cash flow break even, and he believes Medium has found a balanced business and media model for the decade ahead. I wanted to learn more, so let's dive in. Produced by Christopher Gates Music by George Ko…
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1 The Orthogonal Bet: What AI Can Learn from Human Cognition 35:20
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Hello and welcome to the ongoing miniseries The Orthogonal Bet Hosted by Samuel Arbesman , Complexity Scientist, Author, and Scientist in Residence at Lux Capital In this episode, Samuel speaks with Alice Albrecht , the founder and CEO of Recollect , a startup in the AI and tools for thought space. Alice, trained in cognitive neuroscience, has had a long career in machine learning and artificial intelligence. Samuel wanted to talk to Alice because of her extensive experience in AI, machine learning, and cognitive science. She has studied brains, witnessed the hype cycles in AI, and excels at discerning the reality from the noise in the field. Alice shares her wisdom on the nature of artificial intelligence, the current excitement surrounding it, and the related domain of computational tools for thinking. She also provides unique perspectives on artificial intelligence. Episode Produced by Christopher Gates Music by George Ko & Suno…
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1 Can we be optimistic about America’s future? 41:51
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If we had to rebuild American politics to be more positive, could we do it? And what would a positive or even optimistic politics look like? What would be its program, and how could we all be galvanized to join in a world and at a time when it seems as though every day brings another dampener to human enthusiasm? Those are just some of the questions that James Pethokoukis approaches in his recent book, The Conservative Futurist . James emphasizes that optimism and pessimism don’t exist on the traditional left-right axis of political analysis (named for the seating arrangement of politicians during the French Revolution). Instead, he divides the world into an “up wing” — people who believe in expanding the bounds of human ingenuity — and those who belong to a “down wing,” which might be simply summarized as degrowthers and others who see limits in all aspects of science, technology and the human condition. James and I talk about his book, and then I quiz him on just how realistic his futurism is. Is his vision actually possible, or is it the sort of slapstick fantastical science fiction that is great as entertainment but has long since died out as a way to govern? He’s got better evidence marshaled than I expected, and you can be the judge if optimism can guide your thoughts. Produced by Christopher Gates Music by George Ko…
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1 The Orthogonal Bet: Unveiling the Complexity of Life: A Conversation with Philip Ball on ‘How Life Works' 44:16
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Welcome to The Orthogonal Bet, an ongoing mini-series that explores the unconventional ideas and delightful patterns that shape our world. Hosted by Samuel Arbesman , Complexity Scientist, Author, and Scientist in Residence at Lux Capital. In this episode, Samuel speaks with Philip Ball , a science writer, and formerly a longtime editor at the science journal Nature. Philip is the author of the fantastic new book “How Life Works: A User’s Guide to the New Biology.” Samuel wanted to talk to Philip because he loved this book. It’s fascinating and deeply provocative, even for someone with a PhD in computational biology—though Samuel’s might be a bit worn and out of date—and yet he still learned so much. The book examines how new advances in our understanding of biology have led scientists to understand that life is far less deterministic than we might imagine. For example, cells are not really machines, as some might have thought, but complex and messy yet robust systems. And while DNA and genes are important, there is so much more going on, from the processes that give rise to the shape of our limbs and our bodies, to how all of this can have implications for rethinking medicine and disease. Produced by Christopher Gates Music by George Ko & Suno…
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1 “The commons are under attack” from TikTok and subsea cables to data centers and elections 38:08
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2024 is the year of democracy, with more than half of the world’s population voting in elections across India and Indonesia to the European Union, United Kingdom and United States. Underneath the usual campaign slogans and stump speeches though is a crucial set of enabling technologies that are increasingly under attack, diminishing the will of voters and raising very challenging geotechnology questions for governments in the years ahead. That’s why I am excited to bring back the Riskgaming (née “Securities”) podcast’s very first guest, Scott Bade , back on to the show as we approach our centennial episode. Scott is geotechnology analyst at Eurasia Group and has been tracking the rising threats to the world’s technological infrastructure and their implications for global politics. We cover several dozen topics in the show, but focus on three big ones: the killing of TikTok in New Caledonia and what it says about France’s commitment to free speech as Azerbaijan (of all countries) attempts to undermine French democracy. We then zoom in on subsea cables, data centers and AI training, and why there’s been so much more competition in their construction. Finally, we talk about the Global South, and the lack of a new development path for countries in the AI era. Add in some chaos engineering, hybrid warfare, water politics, and the future of Disneyland’s Hall of Presidents and you’ll be demanding an Orthogonal Bet episode just to palette cleanse. Produced by Christopher Gates Music by George Ko…
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1 The Orthogonal Bet: How to fund R&D that is for the public good? 26:06
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In this episode, Sam speaks with Ben Reinhardt , an engineer, scientist, and the founder of a new research organization called Speculative Technologies . Ben is obsessed with building an open-ended and exciting future for humanity. After spending time in academia, government, startups, and even venture capital, he set out to build a new type of research organization—Speculative Technologies—that helps to create new technologies and innovations in materials and manufacturing, acting as a sort of industrial lab for these public goods in order to make a positive vision of the future more likely. There is a lot of optimism and excitement in this episode. The discussion covers the need for new types of research funding and research institutions, why it can be hard for startups to do research, Ben’s vision of the future—and his science fiction inspiration—the ways in which technological innovation happens, why he started Speculative Technologies, and much more. The Orthogonal Bet is an ongoing miniseries of the Riskgaming podcast that explores the unconventional ideas and delightful patterns that shape our world hosted by Samuel Arbesman , complexity scientist, author, and Scientist-in-Residence at Lux Capital . Produced by Christopher Gates Music by George Ko & Suno…
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1 Is AI killing journalism? Pitchforks, Perplexity and reporters yelling “Boo!” 28:58
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Another week, another media tempest in a shrinking tea cup. This time, the internet’s ire centered on Perplexity AI, a startup that offers a layer on top of LLM models that can answer real-time questions about current events. The company got into hot water after it summarized a paywalled Forbes article on Eric Schmidt and his investments in drones with minimal citations. Was this simply fair use summarization of an enterprising investigative article, or something more nefarious and damaging? We brought a troika of journalists (and former journalists) to talk about the controversy and its implications. First up, Reed Albergotti is technology editor at Semafor and a long-time journalist across The Washington Post, The Information, The Wall Street Journal and elsewhere. Second, Eric Newcomer departed Bloomberg after a distinguished reporting career to start Newcomer, a tech newsletter that’s now complemented by the prominent Cerebral Valley AI conference coming this week in NYC. Finally, host Danny Crichton was formerly managing editor at TechCrunch. We talk about the norms of journalism and creative work, the economic disruption of creativity by AI, how journalists should adapt to the coming automated world, how legislation might protect these industries and whether the regulatory approach fits the world’s needs, and finally, the limits of knowledge and how much AI still doesn’t know. Produced by Christopher Gates Music by George Ko…
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1 The Orthogonal Bet: SimCity, Maxis and the ambitious modeling of everything 22:52
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The Orthogonal Bet is an ongoing miniseries of the Riskgaming podcast that explores the unconventional ideas and delightful patterns that shape our world hosted by Samuel Arbesman , complexity scientist, author, and Scientist-in-Residence at Lux Capital . In this episode, Sam speaks with game designer and researcher Chaim Gingold , the author of the fantastic new book Building SimCity: How to Put the World in a Machine . As is probably clear from the title, this new book is about the creation of SimCity, but it’s also about much more than that: it’s about the deep prehistory and ideas that went into the game — from system dynamics to cellular automata — as well as a broader history of Maxis, the company behind SimCity. Chaim previously worked with SimCity’s creator Will Wright on the game Spore, where he designed the Spore Creature Creator. Because of this, Chaim’s deep knowledge of Maxis, his access to the folks there, and his excitement about SimCity and everything around it makes him the perfect person to have written this book. In this episode, Sam and Chaim discuss Chaim’s experience at Maxis, the uniqueness of SimCity, early 90’s gaming, the rise and fall of Maxis, Will Wright and his role translating scientific ideas for a general audience, and much more. Produced by Christopher Gates Music by George Ko & Suno…
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1 Why high-throughput bio research needs better tools immediately 23:26
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There have been data revolutions in most areas of human activity, and biological research is no exception. The rapidly shrinking cost of collecting data like DNA sequences means that there has been an exponential growth in the amount of data that bio researchers have at their disposal. Yet, most biologists still operate on top of general purpose cloud compute platforms, which don’t offer a native environment for them to engage in research at the cutting edge of the field. On the Riskgaming podcast today, Lux’s Tess van Stekelenburg interviews Alfredo Andere and Kenny Workman , the co-founders of LatchBio who are on a quest to rapidly accelerate the progress of biology’s tooling. The big challenge — even for big pharma — is a lack of access to top-flight AI/ML developers in the ferocious talent wars they face against even bigger Big Tech companies. As Workman says, “They just don't have world's best machine learning talent … And then they're working with usually 5- to 10-year-old machine learning technology, except for a small handful of outliers.” LatchBio and other startups are pioneering new ways of delivering those tools to biologists, today. In this episode, the trio discuss the changing data economy of biological research, the lack of infrastructure for conducting laboratory and clinical work, why AstraZeneca has improved its pharma output over the past decade, what the ground truth is around AI and bio, the flaws of open-source software, and finally, how academia and commercial research will fit together in the future. Episode Produced by Christopher Gates Music by George Ko…
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1 The Orthogonal Bet: Novelist Robin Sloan’s Love for Books with Maps on the First Page 42:31
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Hello, and welcome to the ongoing mini-series, The Orthogonal Bet, a show that explores the unconventional ideas and delightful patterns that shape our world. Host Samuel Arbesman, Complexity Scientist, Author, and Scientist in Residence at Lux Capital. In this episode Sam speaks with Robin Sloan, novelist and writer and all-around fun thinker. Robin is the author of the previous novels, Mr Penumbra’s Twenty Four Hour Book Store and Sourdough, which are both tech-infused novels, with a sort of literary flavor mingled with a touch of science fiction. That’s why Sam was so excited by Robin’s brand new third novel Moonbound, where he goes for broke and writes a sprawling science fiction tale set in the far future. In this episode, we explore how Robin built this far future and how he thinks about world-building, an exercise regimen for your imagination, science fiction and fantasy more broadly, and of course, novels with maps. And Lord of the Rings obviously makes an appearance as well. But Moonbound also touches on AI in some really thoughtful and thought-provoking ways, and Robin has also been an early experimenter and adopter of language models. They get into all of that too, talking about AI, the nature of creativity, storytelling, and so much more. Produced by Christopher Gates Music by George Ko & Suno…
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1 How Applied Intuition used the Valley’s hardest lessons to upgrade automotive with autonomy 55:10
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Qasar Younis and Peter Ludwig built Applied Intuition differently from most other startups. At a time of profligate spending at the peak of the tech bubble, they kept expenses low — and the company cash-flow positive for several years now. When every other company was moving toward remote work or a hybrid setup, they doubled down on the in-person, five-days-per-week office (while continuing a no-shoes philosophy). And when it comes to culture, they don’t just post their corporate values on a wall, but encode them right into the very software that runs the company. The results? Applied reached a new milestone valuation earlier this year of $6 billion as well as announced a strategic partnership with automaker Porsche. It’s a moment of success years and even decades in the making, with both Qasar and Peter growing up amidst the milieu of America’s auto capital Detroit. Yet, it wasn’t just friends and family working in the auto industry that led them to invent the future of the car, but also a willingness to learn from Silicon Valley’s most thoughtful startup growth practices. Alongside host Danny Crichton and Lux general partner Bilal Zuberi , we weave a conversation about automotive and autonomy while we discuss the key decisions that founders must make when building a startup. We talk about the pressure of capitalism on company execution, using software to manage a growing organization, why Google exported so much talent in the early 2010s, how to protect engineering productivity with a customer-centric culture, how to construct a useful board of directors, and finally, why markets just “whomp” any other factor of success for entrepreneurs. Produced by Christopher Gates Music by George Ko…
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1 Orthogonal Bet: A technology vibe shift from utopian Star Trek to absurdist Douglas Adams? 28:47
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This is the inaugural episode of an on-going mini-series for the Riskgaming podcast we’re dubbing the Orthogonal Bet. Organized by our scientist-in-residence Sam Arbesman , the goal is to take a step back from the daily machinations that I, Danny Crichton , generally host on the podcast to look at what Sam describes as “…the interesting, the strange, and the weird. Ideas and topics that ignite our curiosity are worthy of our attention, because they might lead to advances and insights that we can’t anticipate.” To that end, today our guest is Matt Webb , a virtuoso tinkerer and creative whose experiments with interaction design and technology have led to such apps as the Galaxy Compass (an app that features an arrow pointing to the center of the universe) and Poem/1 , a hardware clock that offers a rhyming poem devised by AI. He’s also a regular essayist on his blog Interconnected. We latched onto Matt’s recent essay about a vibe shift that’s underway in the tech world from the utopian model of progress presented in Star Trek to the absurd whimsy of Douglas Adams and The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy. Along the way, we also discuss Neal Stephenson, the genre known as “design fiction,” Stafford Beer and management cybernetics, the 90s sci-fi show Wild Palms, and how artificial intelligence is adding depth to the already multitalented. Produced by Christopher Gates Music by George Ko & Suno…
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1 The soon-to-be-solved protein problem that will accelerate drug discovery 20:46
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We’ve known for decades that one of the key mechanisms of biology — and of life itself — is the binding of molecules to proteins. Once bound, proteins change shape and thus their function, allowing our bodies to adapt and change their molecular machinery as needed for survival. The challenge that remains unsolved is to predict — across billions of potential proteins and a similar number of molecules — how those proteins change and how they might interact with each other. The fervent hope of many scientists and entrepreneurs is that artificial intelligence coupled with experimental and synthetic datasets, may finally unlock this critical piece of the biological puzzle, ushering in a new wave of therapeutics. My guest today is one of those science entrepreneurs, Laksh Aithani , the co-founder and CEO of Charm Therapeutics . He’s made cancer the focus of his work, and through Charm and his team, is building expansive datasets to develop AI models that can predict the 3D shape of proteins. Alongside host Danny Crichton and my Lux colleague Tess van Stekelenburg , we explore protein folding’s past, present and future, the utility and risks of synthetic data in biological research, how much money and time we might expect for future drug discovery, what individualized medicine might look like decades from now, and how new grads can get into the field as the century of biology kicks off. Produced by Christopher Gates Music by George Ko…
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1 Margaret Mead and the psychedelic community that theorized AI 34:17
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How does science progress? One way to look at the question is to peer into individual fields and observe the flow of ideas from laboratories and experiments into seminars and conferences and ultimately into the journal record. But the reality is so much more complicated since science is truly a creative act, a set of imaginative leaps from incumbent ways of thinking to new possibilities. The milieu that scientists inhabit — and particularly science’s most productive leaders — is often far more expansive than one would expect. That’s the story today with Margaret Mead and the rise of psychedelic research. Best known as a cultural anthropologist, Mead spanned the sciences, from information theory into the humanities. That range brought her into regular contact with brilliance, and also helped her transmit vital ideas and concepts from field to field. One of the circles she participated in was an emerging group of scholars conceptualizing ideas around computer science, neurology and consciousness, linked together by a curiosity around psychedelics within the paranoia of Cold War politics. Joining host Danny Crichton on the Riskgaming podcast today is Benjamin Breen, a professor of science at the University of California Santa Cruz who just published his new book, Tripping on Utopia: Margaret Mead, the Cold War, and the Troubled Birth of Psychedelic Science . Also joining me today is Lux Capital’s scientist in residence Sam Arbesman. We cover Margaret Mead’s early work, her popularization of science, the Macy conference circles that brought disparate networks of scientists together in New York City, the utopian dream of science in the 1920s and 1930s recently depicted in Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer movie, the rise of LSD and finally, why there were so many interconnections between these scientists and defense institutions like the CIA. Produced by Christopher Gates Music by George Ko…
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1 The nightmare specter of designer bioweapons and the people trying to stop them 33:58
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Ever since the invention of CRISPR technology about a decade ago, biologists have gained increasing power to discover new DNA sequences, cut and mash them up, and then print them in ever larger volumes through biomanufacturers. That freedom and openness is the opening to a long-awaited Century of Bio, with scientists bullish on the potential to discover cures to long-resistant diseases. On the tails side of the coin though, there are fears that the open nature of these tools afford a rebel scientist the means of inventing and distributing well-known or completely novel pathogens that could threaten the lives of millions. It’s not the premise for a bad Hollywood B-movie, but a top security threat that experts at the White House and in the intelligence and defense communities are rapidly trying to solve. Today, I have Kevin Flyangolts of Aclid joining us. Aclid is using artificial intelligence to identify what new sequences of DNA might do, scaling up screening efforts that might allow biomanufacturers the ability to verify their customers’ intentions in a more thoughtful and comprehensive way. Kevin and host Danny Crichton talk about the recent history of bio, the rise of biohacking, the differences between bioweapons, cyberweapons and financial crimes, why we need new approaches to biosecurity, whether executive, legislative or industry approaches might work best, and whether designer bioweapons are as dangerous as many are making them out to be. Finally, a note: in line with the launch of our first riskgaming scenario on the Lux Capital website, Hampton at the Cross-Roads , we have officially condensed the “Securities” podcast name into just “Riskgaming,” which I think captures in one word the risks and opportunities that come from science, technology, finance and the human condition. Same show, more focused name and a great future. Produced by Christopher Gates Music by George Ko & Suno…
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1 Lux and the Art of Startup Maintenance 24:16
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Every quarter, Lux publishes our latest quarterly letter to our limited partners, highlighting the key themes we’re working on as a partnership. These topics are — unsurprisingly — bold, as the frontiers of science fiction transition into the world of the possible. But this time around, we’re emphasizing a new thesis that we think combines the future and the past, and might just help the entire world to boot. Lux co-founder and managing partner Josh Wolfe joins host Danny Crichton to discuss Lux’s new theme of “maintenance.” As Josh wrote, “Maintenance is not about preserving the status quo but thoughtfully fueling forward progress by improving on humanity’s past achievements.” Josh discusses the opportunity with maintenance, as well as why the repair of our society and its infrastructure is a growth industry since “the value of maintaining existing systems grows as entropy accelerates, and as we reach the Entropic Apex, that value becomes concomitantly unbounded.” Produced by Christopher Gates Music by George Ko…
This week’s solar eclipse captured the imaginations of millions of Americans throughout an arc across the continent. One of those entranced was Sam Arbesman , Lux ’s scientist-in-residence and a local of Cleveland, which sat in the full zone of totality. Sam also happened to live in Kansas City during the 2017 eclipse, so he has (accidentally) eclipsed-chased in his choices of residence. Briefly, Sam and host Danny Crichton talk about the eclipse, the mesmerizing impact of science, and the unique community that comes together in cities lying in the darkness. Lux is “light” in Latin, and so what happens when darkness descends across the Earth? Surprisingly, something magical and optimistic, showing how science and mathematics has the ability to transmute our passions into something great. Produced by Christopher Gates Music by George Ko…
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1 Biology is becoming engineering and not just science 24:27
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During a recent interview, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang emphasized his interest in how Nvidia’s AI processing chips could transform the science of life. He noted that this science, when properly understood, could evolve into a new form of engineering. Currently though, we lack the knowledge of how the extreme complexity of biology works, nor do we have models — namely AI models — to process that complexity. We may not have a perfect understanding of biology, but our toolset has expanded dramatically over the past ten years. Now, with the combination of data, biology and AI, we’re seeing the early signs of a golden era of biological progress, with large-language models that are able to predict everything from protein folding to increasingly, protein function. Entire spaces of our map are being discovered and filled in, and that is leading to some bullish scientists and investors to call the period we are living in the century of biology. But much remains to be done, and that’s the topic of our episode today. Host Danny Crichton is joined by Lux Capital ’s bio investor Tess van Stekelenburg . Tess and Danny talk about Nvidia’s recent forays into biology as well as the new foundational model Evo from the Arc Institute . They then look at what new datasets are entering biology and where the gaps remain in our global quest to engineer life. Finally, they’ll project forward on where evolution might be taking us in the future once unshackled by nature. Produced by Christopher Gates Music by George Ko…
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1 The three revolutions in astrobiology and the search for extraterrestrial life 32:30
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Astrobiology has seen a series of revolutions over the past three decades that have completely reinvigorated the field. Scientists who were curious about life and biological organisms across the universe once had to handle the so-called giggle factor: the idea that they were kooky crazies searching for UFOs and little green men. With a dramatic improvement to the quality of our instruments and a torrent of new and better data, that giggle factor is now no laughing matter: we increasingly have the means to make progress here like never before. My guest today is Adam Frank , the author of The Little Book of Aliens and a professor of astrophysics who is focused on improving our ability to identify biosignatures and technosignatures of life throughout the cosmos. He’s just one contributor to a growing community of scientists reinventing our approach to the search for life, a vitality that is leading to the potential first dedicated satellite focused on the search, the Habitable Worlds Observatory. Alongside host Danny Crichton and Lux’s scientist in residence Sam Arbesman , we talk about the trilogy of revolutions that have brought new vigor to astrobiology, how artificial intelligence is upending the search for life, and what we can also learn about Earth and our climate in searching space for the answers of life. Produced by Christopher Gates Music by George Ko & Suno…
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1 “I am basically a cosmic Fluke” and the chaos of science, policy, and human narratives 33:01
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Humans are enamored by a good story. The world overloads our mammalian senses, and so we seek any simplifying structure to narrate what we are witnessing and make it more accessible for processing. That simplification doesn’t just reduce the complexity of the world, but also makes it difficult to see the extent by which luck drives the successes of our geniuses — and the failures of others. From scientific discoveries and power-law venture returns to legislative breakthroughs and decisions during war, the world is, essentially, chaos. That might trigger a bout of deep existentialism for many of us, but for Brian Klaas , the hope is that confronting the stochastic nature of the world can lead to better governance and progress. In his new book Fluke , Klaas argues that we need to upend the simplistic statistical analyses and modeling that are common across social science and other domains and replace it with one that can encompass a theory of flukes. That means understanding timing, path dependency, and how the world is a complex system that is far more of a continuous variable than a binary one. With Lux ’s scientist-in-residence Sam Arbesman and host Danny Crichton , we all talk about how chaos rules our lives; how a better understanding of complexity can improve investments, science, and life; Darwin’s luck of publishing his research on natural selection; the dangers of the human penchant for finding narrative; the random luck of our life experiences; and why understanding flukes can be a counterpoint to the ideas of moneyball. Produced by Christopher Gates Music by George Ko & Suno…
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1 How an anonymous blog during the neural network winter led to Japan’s national AI champion 45:15
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Connections are the key ingredient for careers, society and AI neural networks to boot. Sometimes those connections arise spontaneously and other times they’re planned, but the most interesting ones tend to be planned that go in unexpected directions. That’s the story of David Ha , the co-founder and CEO of Sakana , a world-class generative AI research lab in Tokyo, Japan. We previously announced that Lux led a $30 million founding seed round in the company a few weeks ago on the podcast, but we didn’t dive deeper into the ricochets of David’s peripatetic career. Studying computer science and machine learning at the University of Toronto, he worked down the hall from now-famous AI researcher Geoffrey Hinton. He ultimately headed to Goldman Sachs in Tokyo doing derivatives trading, but on the side, he published a shadow and anonymous blog where he posted random experiments in artificial intelligence. A decade later of serendipitous connections later, and he is now leading one of the emerging national AI leaders for Japan. We talk through the stochastic moments that defined David’s career, why complex systems knowledge would ultimately turn out to be so valuable, the unique features and benefits of Japan, why openly communicating ideas and particularly interactive demos can spawn such serendipitous connections, why industry has produced more innovation in AI than academia, and why Google’s creativity should never be discounted. Produced by Christopher Gates Music by George Ko & Suno…
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1 The most wasteful infrastructure megaproject that wasn’t 36:22
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The construction of Boston’s Big Dig highway tunnels has gone down in history as one of the most infamously delayed and over-budgeted infrastructure projects in the sorry annals of U.S. growth and progress. But Ian Coss sees the project radically different. In hindsight, he argues, the Big Dig was a steal: the good kind. Far from being a gargantuan boondoggle, the project resuscitated downtown Boston and ushered in urban economic benefits and spillovers that dwarf the costs of the project, however one might calculate them. Ian interviewed more than 100 people connected with the Big Dig and spent months editing a nine-episode podcast series titled “ The Big Dig ” for GBH News, Boston’s National Public Radio affiliate. Through the series, he covers everything from the environmental consciousness of the 1960s and colorful yet idealistic local political figures to the Department of Transportation’s inflation estimate policy and ultimately the decades it took to bring the dream of burying Boston’s unsightly Central Artery freeway. On today’s “Securities” podcast with host Danny Crichton , Danny and Ian debate the merits of the Big Dig megaproject, the complicated construction policies that made the project seem like a loser in front of the public, and just how hard it is to measure the true impact of a project that forever transformed one of America’s founding cities. Produced by Christopher Gates Music by George Ko…
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1 The stove hasn’t changed in decades. It’s time to upgrade. 28:26
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Home appliances are some of our most used and time-saving technologies, but they have barely evolved since their invention. A “smart” movement from major manufacturers tried to upgrade them with random tech features over the past decade, only to frustrate consumers with random crashes and mandatory web updates for a fridge. It was the nadir of user-friendly design and an embarrassing example of tech for tech’s sake. Impulse Labs wants to improve this miserable status quo. Funded by Lux , Impulse is rethinking appliances from the foundations up, evolving the experience of home appliances for the twenty-first century. What if our stoves could boil water all but instantly? What if we could perfectly and effortlessly cook a steak — every single time. And what if we could do all this while transforming the power grid and the availability of decentralized electricity for ourselves and our neighbors? That’s just part of the vision of Impulse Labs founder and CEO Sam D’Amico . Sam and host Danny Crichton talk about hardware product design, consumer marketing, what it takes to build the right supply chains as well as standing out during the chaos that is CES in Las Vegas. Produced by Christopher Gates Music by George Ko…
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1 Astronauts all lie, but the biggest lie is that we will colonize Mars (Zach Weinersmith, Part 1 of 2) 26:09
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Colonizing Mars has gone from the speculative fiction section of the bookstore right into the halls of Congress. Entrepreneurs led by Elon Musk have made “Occupy Mars” a tagline, and companies the Earth over are exploring the logistics of settling humans across the Moon and Mars. But what’s the true viability of a Mars settlement plan? Do we have the technology and legal systems in place to make this one-time fiction a reality? Popular cartoonist and author, Zach Weinersmith , wrote “A City On Mars” alongside his wife Kelly Weinersmith to explore that very question. Starting with an optimistic lens, they eventually conceded in the book that the project is one of extraordinary difficulty and are pessimistic at its chances. “ A City On Mars ” won a slew of best-of awards in 2023 for its delightfully engaging and humorous breakdown of complex physical and biological topics. In this first part of a two-part series, host Danny Crichton and Lux ’s scientist in residence Sam Arbesman discuss with Zach the biological and psychological challenges of inter-planetary settlement and why every astronaut lies about their health in outer space. We also explore the challenges of reproduction in space, and what a second generation of settlers might have to endure in the far reaches of our solar system. Produced by Christopher Gates Music by George Ko…
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1 Why a Mars settlement could never be a libertarian paradise (Zach Weinersmith, Part 2 of 2) 25:05
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The current drive for a Mars colony revolves around two central axes: one is a fear of existential risk and the other is a search for existentialism. On the former, philosophers and probabilists remain deeply concerned about humanity’s Achilles heel: that our entire existence depends on the sustenance of a single blue dot in the Milky Way. Humanity’s fate is fundamentally tied to this single rock, which gives little redundancy from an asteroid strike, nuclear winter, or pandemic. At the same time, many entrepreneurs hear a rallying cry when they think about a Mars colony, arguing that a bold and long-term project is precisely what is needed to galvanize humanity to work together, overlook our internecine differences and find transcendence amidst the celestial cosmos. Even if outside our lifetime, a drive toward a space colony could be an existentialism that offers meaning and sustenance to our lives. In this second and final episode, Zack Weinersmith , who along with his wife Kelly Weinersmith are the authorial duo of A City on Mars , join host Danny Crichton and Lux’ s scientist-in-residence Sam Arbesman to talk more about their negative prognostication for a Mars colony. Taking a more optimistic view, we also talk with Zach about what we should be doing to prep for a colony, including collecting more laboratory data and expanding science’s understanding of life under microgravity conditions.…
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1 How Impulse Space’s Helios will democratize access to Earth’s farthest orbits 15:55
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The cost of launching a payload into low-earth orbit has shrunk dramatically over the past two decades as SpaceX has aggressively expanded its capability to repeatedly launch payloads into orbit at cheap cost. But accessing orbits farther away from Earth, such as Medium Earth orbit (MEO) and Geostationary orbit (GEO), remain expensive endeavors. Lux ’s portfolio company Impulse Space , which is building the next generation of rocket propulsion for space, unveiled the design specs of its new high performance kick stage vehicle Helios today. The vehicle will allow operators to move objects like satellites from Low Earth orbit to orbits farther away at just a fraction of today’s costs, and it’s coming soon in 2026. I talked with Impulse Space’s CEO and founder Tom Mueller about Helios, as well as the growing concerns over space junk, a recent satellite emergency over Christmas, the television show The Expanse, space traffic control and what it means to move things in space and bring them back home.…
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