In this episode, Florence Gaub learns from Laura Bardone how the European Commission conducts economic forecasts and discovers that it does not involve a big calculator.Oleh Florence Gaub, Laura Bardone

In this episode, Florence Gaub and Daniel Fiott talk foresight to Jean-Francois Ripoche from the European Defence Agency: how is it used, how is it useful, and why science fiction can help get it done.Oleh Florence Gaub, Daniel Fiott, Jean-François Ripoche

In this special edition of our What if podcast, the EU’s first-ever commissioner for strategic foresight Maroš Šefčovič explains to Florence Gaub what foresight is, how it can help policy-making, and what he thinks generally about the future.Oleh Florence Gaub, Maroš Šefčovič

In this last episode of our mini-series on strategy, Security and Defence editor Daniel Fiott and Florence Gaub discuss strategy and strategic foresight: how are they different, how do they complement each other, and how are both applied to defence matters?Oleh Daniel Fiott, Florence Gaub

In the second episode of our mini-series on strategy, Florence Gaub has two guests: the pen-holder of the Strategic Compass, Jean-Pierre van Aubel, and Daniel Fiott, the Security and Defence editor of the EUISS. They discuss whether the Strategic Compass is, or is not, a strategy, how it is being put together, and why it is important for Europe.…

In this first episode of our mini-series on strategy, EUISS director Gustav Lindstrom explains to Florence Gaub what strategy actually is (and what it is not), how the EU has become more and more strategic in its thinking and actions, and what this all means for the next phase in its strategic trajectory.…

In this episode, Florence Gaub is the guest on her own show and explains to Giovanni Faleg why expectations of a rapid democratisation in the Arab world in 2011 were misplaced. She shows that a profound misunderstanding of democracy and transition towards it led to exaggerated expectations which themselves paved the way for some policy errors. What…

In this episode, Alice Ekman explains to Florence Gaub why people commonly thought that China was going to become a democracy, or alternatively implode economically. We look at why wishful thinking, but also China’s unique historical path, paved the way for surprise in the 2010s. What would we have done differently if we had seen this more clearly …

In this new mini-series we look at past expectations that turned out to be untrue and try to learn from past mistakes. In our first episode, Stanislav Secrieru and Florence Gaub look at Russia: although people expected the country to be poor and weak, the 2010s witnessed Russia’s geopolitical resurgence. Why did we not see this coming, what can we …

In this last episode of the Russia miniseries, Florence Gaub discusses with Andrew Wilson (ECFR) the future trajectory of a Belarus very much under the influence of Russia. How far might Russia go - and how much wiggle room is there for Belarus?Oleh Florence Gaub, Andrew Wilson

In this episode, Janis Kluge (SWP) takes Florence Gaub to a future where Russia has reformed its economy with spectacular success. What would have to happen for this to come true, what would it mean - and what stands in the way of this being achievable?Oleh Janis Kluge, Florence Gaub

In this episode, Sinikukka Saari and Stanislav Secrieru explain to Florence Gaub why there is a danger that Russia may become divided into four Russias: differentiated in economic but also geographic terms - and what this means for the future.Oleh Stanislav Secrieru, Sinikukka Saari, Florence Gaub

While technology might be just the sum of science and industry, for China it is a pillar of its geopolitical ambition. In this last episode of our miniseries on China, Alice Ekman and Florence Gaub dig deeper into the role of technology in China’s pursuit of power, and take stock of where we are at – and where we are going.…

As China gains more and more influence on the global stage, the big question is what it intends to achieve with this new status. In this second episode of our miniseries on China, Alice Ekman and Florence Gaub discuss how China has moved from quietist diplomacy to expansive geopolitical ambition, and what this could mean for the rest of the world.…

China not only has a vision for a different world order, it also has a vision for deploying different diplomatic practices. In this first episode of our mini-series on China, EUISS Senior Analyst Alice Ekman discusses the distinctive methods of Chinese diplomacy with Deputy Director Florence Gaub, explains why these are a challenge for the EU, and …

The pandemic has hit the United States harder than any other country; and Americans are scheduled to go to the polls in November. Will the coronavirus lead to a postponement of the elections? And in that case what will happen? Will the virus swing the election in favour of either candidate? EUISS Senior Associate Analyst Simona Soare discusses this…

Projections show a possible death toll of more than 3 million for Africa, but what if these calculations turn out to be wrong? EUISS Senior Analyst Giovanni Faleg discusses with Florence Gaub whether we can expect lower fatality rates, what this could mean for the continent, and what needs to be done urgently.…

Currently, 43 states in the world are experiencing ongoing conflicts. What impact will the Covid-19 pandemic have on these conflicts? Will they escalate, or is there perhaps an opportunity for peace? EUISS Senior Associate Analyst Katariina Mustasilta discusses with Florence Gaub how conflict research sheds light on the link between discontent and …

Russia initially seemed to be doing better than other states when it came to the pandemic, but it has since emerged that the truth is far from what the Kremlin projected. How is Putin managing Covid-19? What do Russians think about it – and what does it mean for Putin's future projects? EUISS Senior Associate Analyst Sinikukka Saari explains it all…

In this episode, EUISS senior analyst Stanislav Secrieru discusses with Florence Gaub what economic impact Covid-19 will have on three Eastern neighbourhood states. Will the flow of remittances cease altogether? How will people and states cope? And what can we do about it?Oleh Florence Gaub, Stanislav Secrieru

In this episode, EUISS senior analyst Alice Ekman discusses with Florence Gaub how China has not just survived the pandemic crisis but is in fact thriving on it. From the Belt and Road Initiative to its vision for the world in 2050, Beijing is making the most of a crisis other countries are barely managing to cope with - or is it?…

In this episode, EUISS associate analyst Nathalie van Raemdonck discusses a counterfactual 'What if ...?' scenario with Florence Gaub: a COVID-19 pandemic without the internet. From crisis management to problem-solving: would it have been easier, harder, or just noisier?Oleh Florence Gaub, Nathalie van Raemdonck

Oleh Florence Gaub, Patryk Pawlak, Alice Ekman

Oleh Florence Gaub, Clara Portela, Stanislav Secrieru

Oleh Florence Gaub, Simona R. Soare