Exploring threats to global stability from Ukraine to China to the Middle East with host Gavin Esler – former BBC News presenter, Washington correspondent and host of Newsnight – plus Ukraine-based war reporter Oz Katerji and independent conflict analyst Emma Beals. This Is Not A Drill dives deep into the dangers, corruption, conflicts, disinformation, rivalries and ruthless realpolitik that are making our world ever more dangerous. Support This Is Not A Drill on Patreon from just £3 per mon ...
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The Bear On The Doorstep – Poland, Georgia, and Eastern Europe’s fight against Russian power
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What’s it like to live next to the world’s worst neighbour: Vladimir Putin’s Russia? In 2024, pro-democracy Georgians are beaten for resisting their pro-Moscow government from enacting a Putinesque “foreign agents” law. Poland is rearming against the Russian threat, and the Baltic states of the former USSR are subjected to hybrid warfare from their…
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“China is now Putin’s master” – Ex-defence secretary Ben Wallace speaks
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As Defence Secretary, former Scots Guard Ben Wallace was one of few well-respected ministers during the Johnson years. In office he faced the Afghanistan withdrawal and Russia’s war on Ukraine. As he prepares to leave Parliament, he tells Oz Katerji why Europe must re-arm to support Ukraine and deter Putin’s Russia; how Netanyahu has over-extended …
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Will technology kill democracy?
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In 2024 four billion people will vote in the biggest election year in history, which will see existential tests for democracy in the US, India and elsewhere. What is shaping the battle between democracy and autocracy? And who is winning? Ellection-distorting technology is outpacing governments’ ability to regulate it. Can democracy survive the unco…
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The new Cold War between China and the US isn’t just fought on the digital plane. China is supplying equipment to Russia, intimidating Taiwan, bringing countries across Africa and Asia into its orbit – and, according to US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, attempting to influence the US Presidential Election. What does Xi Jinping really want? Can…
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How America lost its New World Order… and what comes next
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America’s war to liberate Kuwait from Saddam Hussein in 1991 was supposed to inaugurate a New World Order. President George HW Bush spoke of protecting ‘“peace, security, freedom and the rule of law… such is a world worthy of our children’s future.” But the failed wars in Afghanistan and Iraq in the 2000s, China’s resurgence and Russia’s invasion o…
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Gold Wars, Russia’s Africa Corps… and the biggest mass migration of the 21st Century
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The world has responded with stunning cynicism to the wave of coups d’etat across Central Africa – either ignoring the violence, suffering and the rise of military strongmen, or exploiting it for their own ends. From Mali, Guinea and Burkina Faso to the bloody civil war and mass displacement in Sudan, Oz Katerji finds that the Sahel region isn’t on…
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Emergency Edition: Iran attacks Israel – what next?
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Iran’s drone attacks on Israel, in retaliation for an Israeli strike on its embassy in Damascus, shocked the world this weekend. Israel’s divided war cabinet is considering a response, the US has warned it will not take part in a counteroffensive, and world leaders fear an escalation into regional war. But will it really happen? Gavin Esler speaks …
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Guns, Drugs and Crypto – Who’s funding the return of asymmetric warfare?
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Why does the militarily weaker side lose many battles but often win the war? In the 21st Century the David-vs-Goliath threat of asymmetric warfare – where small non-state militias and terror groups defeat vastly better armed nation states in Iraq, Afghanistan and elsewhere – is back. Now armed groups including Yemen’s Houthi, Hamas and Islamic Stat…
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Dangerous Waters – How the world shipping system became a new battleground
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Houthi attacks on shipping have thrown global supply lines into turmoil, and led 20 countries to intervene militarily. But the Red Sea logistics crisis is just the latest in series of shocks to the world trade system, from the Pandemic to Ukraine and beyond. What does it mean when any pirate with a missile and a TikTok account can hold domestic sup…
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Update: Russia after the Crocus Hall massacre
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Special edition: On Friday March 22, Islamic State gunmen murdered more than 130 people in Moscow’s Crocus City Hall concert venue, just 12 miles from the Kremlin. Putin tried to direct the blame towards Ukraine, but it has emerged that Russia’s FSB had ignored plausible warnings of an impending terror attack from Western security services. Gavin E…
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The spying game was supposed to fade into history with the Cold War. But Vladimir Putin’s historic grievances, obsession with Ukraine and need to placate his own intelligence agencies have sent a new wave of espionage across the world. The West thinks we’re at peace. The Russians know we’re at war. So what are Western intelligence agencies going to…
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Defeating Russia’s Information War Machine – with Peter Pomerantsev
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Putin has used digital disinformation against Ukraine and the West since long before the Russian invasion, undermining US and EU support for Kyiv by smearing Ukrainians as Nazis and denying Russia’s many atrocities. Are we already in an information war? And how do we win it? Gavin Esler talks to longterm Putin-watcher and post-truth analyst Peter P…
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Iran and the US – Inside the Shadow War
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Iran – America’s arch-enemy and the Middle East’s malign “mini-Imperial power” – fans conflicts from Ukraine to Israel to Yemen, Iraq and Lebanon, and is said to be only weeks away from developing a nuclear weapon. But the Islamic Revolution is under sustained attack from within, under the banner of ‘Woman, Life, Freedom’. Can Iran maintain its har…
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Ukraine two years on – Inside Ukraine’s defence.
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Russia’s war on Ukraine two years on. This time: How is Ukraine’s defence of its territory holding up under Putin’s onslaught? How do Ukrainians see the Trump Right’s obstruction of $60bn of aid to Kyiv? Is the loss of Avdiivka to Russia really what it seems? And how could the War end? Ukrainian journalist and Chatham House fellow Olga Tokariuk tel…
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Ukraine two years on – Inside Russia’s state of terror
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The first of two specials covering Russia’s war on Ukraine two years on. This time: Inside Russia. Avdiivka has fallen, Alexei Navalny is dead, and pro-Russia Republicans are starving Kyiv of ammunition. Putin finally feels the war could turn in his direction. Is he right? And how does the Russian tyrant keep control of a country where a restive mo…
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New Power in the Gulf – The rise of “MBZ”
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From Cop28 to Manchester City to the attempted purchase of the Telegraph newspaper, the United Arab Emirates are suddenly flexing power and prestige across the Gulf. Behind it all is Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, known as MBZ, who mixes a show of modernisation with an iron will, especially regarding human rights. Who is MBZ? How has his tiny …
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Trump vs NATO: Could Europe survive alone?
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The fear that a re-elected Trump would pull the US out of NATO haunts European leaders. Now he says he’d actively encourage Putin to attack European countries who haven’t “paid their bills”. Could a second Trump presidency really open the door for war in Europe? What contingency plans is NATO making? Has Europe really underspent on defence? And is …
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North Korea: Kim Jong Un’s journey to the edge
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Could the belligerence of North Korea – enigma, dynastic dictatorship, nuclear-armed regional menace – be coming to a violent head? Leader Kim Jong Un has torn up his country’s long-cherished goal of reunifying with the South; is ordering provocative missile launches; and ratcheting up tensions with the United States. Could he take the final step i…
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The world rearms – Panel special with Gavin Esler, Emma Beals and Oz Katerji
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The world’s future is darkening. Ukraine’s defence is in peril, the Red Sea and Israel/Hamas conflicts threaten to join hands, the US is stationing nuclear weapons in England again, and even conscription is back on the agenda. Where are these multiple crises in Ukraine and the Middle East heading? The This Is Not A Drill team of Gavin Esler, Kyiv-b…
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Ukraine vs Russia: Are “peace talks” just a Putin trap?
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Is peace with Putin even possible? In the early days of Russia’s war on Ukraine, negotiations seemed viable. Then came Bucha and the revelations of Russian atrocities on Ukrainian soil. Now Russia is again “putting out feelers” for peace talks – but would negotiation simply give Putin a chance to consolidate his gains and regroup for more? Oz Kater…
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Dire Straits – After Taiwan’s election, could China attempt a stealth takeover?
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Tensions are rising across the Taiwan Strait. China is enraged that the Taiwanese people have chosen a man Beijing calls a “troublemaker”, William Lai, as their President. Now Xi Jinping has become personally invested in regaining the territory. While a hot military conflict would be disastrous far beyond the region, China has many other options fr…
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🚨 UPDATE 🚨 Red Sea latest as airstrikes hit Yemen
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Gavin Esler talks with Yemen expert Helen Lackner after a night of yet more conflict in the Middle East. Within hours of our recording with Yemen expert and author Helen Lackner analysing the Houthi militia’s attacks on Red Sea shipping vessels , the United States, supported by a coalition of the UK and eight other countries, led airstrikes on Hout…
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Iran, the Houthis and war in the Red Sea explained – Special edition with The Bunker
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This is a special crossover episode with The Bunker, our daily politics podcast, and we’re bringing it to the TINAD feed too. Why are UK and US navies defending Western shipping against missile attacks and hijacks from rebels in the poorest country in the Middle East? The battle between the Yemeni government and the Houthi militia threatens to spil…
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The Final Countdown: Can anything stop Trump? – with Brian Klaas of UCL
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In twelve months’ time America will inaugurate a new President. It could be a man who says he’ll act as a “dictator on day one,” who rejects elections if he doesn’t win them, and whose America First ideas could shatter what remains of the global order. With a year to go, UCL Associate Professor in Global Politics Brian Klaas tells Gavin Esler how D…
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2024: A dangerous year ahead – with former National Security Adviser Peter Ricketts
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With wars raging in Ukraine and Gaza, tensions rising in Yemen and between China and Taiwan, populists eyeing elections across the world and the spectre of another Trump Presidency, 2024 could be the most dangerous year for global stability in two decades. How will the world’s various crises play out? And could there even be reasons for optimism? G…
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Putin wants to spread chaos in Europe. Here’s how he’ll do it
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With his playbook of brutal invasion, cyberwar and intimidation, Vladimir Putin is the nightmare neighbour of every country that borders Russia. Beyond his crimes in Ukraine, could Putin’s ambitions run wider – into the heart of Europe? Gavin Esler explores how Russia is using weak spots along its border from Estonia to the Balkans to fan feuds, cr…
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Exodus and revelations: The truth about migration – with Prof Hein de Haas
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From ‘Stop the Boats’ to ‘Build the Wall’, mass migration is the great upheaval of our times, opening a poisonous political divide. Will population movement really tip our world into chaos as the populists and far-right agitators warn? Will democracies have to choose between mass migration or low growth? Are hardliners like Italy’s Meloni or Hungar…
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Are we stumbling into World War Three?
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Are we entering a new age of war? The number of violent conflicts in the world is increasing, and they’re lasting longer. Wars in Ukraine and Israel/Palestine threaten to merge into wider conflagrations. Autocrats and populists see chaos as a route to power. America can no longer guarantee global stability, and democracy is faltering. Gavin Esler s…
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Ukraine in stalemate: What Kyiv needs in order to win – with Oz Katerji
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Why did Ukraine’s much-discussed counter-offensive of summer 2023 fail to turn the tide of the War? What’s really happening on the ground, and how might the third year of this historic conflict take shape? Conflict journalist Oz Katerji reports from Ukraine to discover how and where Kyiv has succeeded and faltered – what would change the war in Ukr…
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The Israel/Hamas War: Netanyahu’s crisis, Iran’s opportunity
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The Hamas atrocities of 7th October and Israel’s overwhelming retaliation have plunged the region into its worst chaos in 50 years. How deeply involved was Iran in the Hamas attacks? Did Netanyahu’s political desperation and strategic bungling really open the door to the most anguished day in Israel’s history? And is there a way to end the carnage …
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New Series: Twelve months to save American democracy?
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Welcome to This Is Not A Drill – the new name for Doomsday Watch, with new host Gavin Esler. In our first episode: It’s one year to the US Presidential election. If Donald Trump is the victor he will be unbound by any fear of legal or democratic restraint. What will Trump do to get there? And what will he do if he wins? Gavin Esler talks to Bill Kr…
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This Is Not A Drill – the new name for Doomsday Watch
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Welcome to This Is Not A Drill, the brand new weekly show about geopolitical threats, where they come from and how to fight them. We’re building on the legacy of Doomsday Watch to look even more widely about the dangers, corruption, conflicts, disinformation, rivalries and ruthless realpolitik that are making our world ever-more dangerous. And we’v…
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This week, for the second time since Russia’s full scale invasion of Ukraine, world leaders met to discuss the challenges facing the NATO security alliance. With two previously isolationist nations, Finland and Sweden, newly joined or about to join - this week’s Summit in Vilnius, Lithuania spoke of a newly energised organisation. But perhaps predi…
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After an astonishing seven days in Russia, Doomsday Watch is back to answer some of the biggest questions following the aborted Wagner rebellion. How will Yevgeny Prigozhin’s short-lived insurrection affect Russia and its war of aggression on Ukraine? Few understand the machinations and manoeuvres of Russian politics like Christopher Steele - forme…
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Emergency Bulletin - Götterdämmerung: Wagner’s Coup
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The slow-motion breakdown of relations between Wagner boss Yevgeniy Prigozhin and Russia’s military has now accelerated into a fast-forward coup. Wagner mercenaries have taken control of Rostov - a Russian city which houses the headquarters of Russia’s military campaign in Ukraine. And now they are marching on Moscow. A worried Putin has made a nat…
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The Ukraine War Ep. 8: The World At War
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The finale of our history of the Ukraine war – for now. As Ukraine’s 2023 counter-offensive begins and Putin responds with mere nihilistic destruction, the stakes couldn’t be higher. Now Arthur Snell takes stock of the war so far. Ukraine’s fight for freedom could preserves the security of Europe’s hinterlands, and Russia’s failures have shown how …
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The Ukraine War Ep. 7: New World Disorder
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How Putin’s war has reshaped the world. In Ep.7: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine shattered the rules-based international order. Now the strongmen are scrambling to take advantage. Arthur Snell looks at vast powerplays of Russian information warfare and Chinese influence across Africa and the developing world. Will China see financing Putin’s faltering…
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The Ukraine War Ep. 6: Defiance
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Telling the history of the war that’s reshaping the world. In Ep.6: How Ukrainian bravery and steadfastness amazed the world. These are the human stories of how a country much smaller than Russia was able to stand together under Putin’s astonishing onslaught – why a shovel is a soldier’s best friend – and how Ukrainian civilians who never thought o…
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The Ukraine War Ep. 5: Russia Humiliated
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Telling the history of the war that’s reshaping the world. In Ep.5: As Putin’s assault falters and his army degenerates into retreat and atrocity, Russia’s self-image as a bulwark against fascism falls into tatters. Arthur Snell looks at the incompetence, factionalism, corruption and failure to plan which created this debacle – how Russia remains o…
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The Ukraine War Ep. 4: Europe in Shock
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Telling the history of the war that’s reshaping the world. In Ep.4: Putin planned to break Europe’s resolve under the twin effects of his assault on Ukraine and his energy war. Instead he bound NATO and the EU together more tightly than ever. This is the story of how Putin’s recklessness created the ‘Zeitenwende’, the turning point in European hist…
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The Ukraine War Ep. 3: War Crimes
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Warning: The episode contains distressing material. In Ep.3 of our history of Putin’s war: As the Russian assault stalls, the Ukrainian city of Mariupol becomes a source of humiliation for Putin. He resolves to obliterate it and its people. War crimes on the scale of WWII ensue. Arthur Snell talks to journalists, eyewitnesses and campaigners to rev…
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The Ukraine War Ep. 2: Invasion
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Telling the history of a war that’s reshaping the world. In Ep.2: Russia thought they’d take Kyiv in three days. Instead Putin’s invasion has gone down as one of the most infamous fiascos in military history – while Ukraine’s courage and fighting skill has stunned the world. How did Putin get it so wrong? And how did Zelenskyy’s defiance transform …
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The Ukraine War Ep. 1: The Eve of the War
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Telling the history of a war that’s reshaping the world. In Ep.1: How Russia’s febrile history, Putin’s paranoid resentment and Western complacency led to an historic crime against a peaceful nation, the destruction of the rules-based international order, the largest European land action since the Second World War… and a conflict of unprecedented b…
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SPECIAL: Who is the real Zelenskyy?
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Special edition: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy embodies the courage of his nation, and his charisma and determination have made him a hero to the free world. But what this former actor-comedian turned war leader tick? Arthur Snell talks to Steven Derix, co-author of Zelensky*: Ukraine's President and His Country with Marina Shelkunova, ab…
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BONUS: What have we learned? Arthur Snell Q&A on Putin, Iran, Trump and more
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Special bonus edition. Our latest series was a whirlwind tour of the apocalypse, from Ukraine to the Arctic to cyberspace and beyond. What did Arthur Snell learn? Our presenter sits down with Andrew Harrison for the big takeaways. Has Putin already lost the Ukraine War? Can a paranoid Republican Party really govern? Could there be a nuclear conflic…
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A taster of JAM TOMORROW with Ros Taylor – our new documentary podcast
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A special taster of our new series. Search for Jam Tomorrow in your favourite podcast app or visit https://kite.link/JTS1 Episode One: Every Day Is Like D-Day. How did Britain’s dreams of a new postwar world go unfulfilled? And what does that mean for us today? In the first of a new documentary series from the makers of Oh God, What Now?, Ros Taylo…
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SPECIAL: Who's burning Russia? Secrets of a covert ops offensive
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Why do key military sites in Russia have an unfortunate habit of bursting into flames? Journalist and former US special forces operative Jack Murphy pulls back the curtain on an audacious campaign of sleeper agent sabotage on Russian soil. This is the astonishing story of how the CIA works with the spy service of one NATO-friendly country to bring …
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Season finale: Will Ukraine save the world?
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Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has reshaped the world, but not the way Putin wanted. With little to show for its 100,000 dead, Russia is exposed as weak and militarily inadequate. Now Russian interference in Western democracy and dirty oligarch money are under greater scrutiny than ever before. With Western democracies shocked into unity, does the Uk…
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COVID tested world health systems to near-destruction and killed more than 6.6 million people. Now new infectious diseases are emerging and the antibiotics we depend on no longer work the way they used to. Arthur Snell meets doctors, epidemiologists, evolutionary biologists and veterans of the Coronavirus battles to discover the mounting threat of …
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Black Ops and Secret Wars
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Espionage is changing, from George Smiley’s binary Cold War world into a more complex landscape. The CIA employs targeted drone killings while Russia and China’s cyber capabilities interfere in elections, media and industry. How did we get here? And what does the new ambiguity in intelligence mean for global stability? In this edition Arthur Snell …
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