There's a lot of debate right now whether the US is indeed at risk of entering a recession this year.And at the same time, the stock market has become a lot more volatile, swinging between Risk On and Risk Off as Wall Street sentiment becomes increasingly bipolar.Who is more likely to be proven right this year: the optimists or the pessimists?For a…

SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.comMacro & market analyst Stephanie Pomboy shares the latest investing trends that have her attention + takes live Q&A from the viewing audience

After embracing the "no landing narrative" last year and later unleashing animal spirits after the Presidential election that drove stocks to record levels of euphoria, the national mood has turned substantially more dour.Suddenly, the headlines are filled with fears of recession.The post-COVID higher cost of living and the uncertainty caused by th…

To better understand the odds for success of the economic policies of the new Trump Administration, it helps to talk to someone with first-hand experience in managing the Federal budget.Today's guest, has been a true insider in both Washington DC and Wall Street for his extremely long & accomplished career.We're fortunate today to speak with former…

Yesterday, the S&P 500 (barely) broke a 4-week losing streak of down weeks.On a technical level, stocks remain extremely oversold here and sentiment is similarly at a negative extreme.As portfolio manager Lance Roberts notes, conditions like these are ripe for a market reversal. In his opinion, the odds favor a rally in the near term -- perhaps as …

The new Trump Administration has wasted no time deploying its ambitious and disruptive economic policies.Tax cuts, aggressive trade re-negotiations, de-regulation, DOGE-driven cost reductions -- a potential new sovereign wealth fund.What are the intended benefits of these policies? Are they likely to succeed? Are they being implemented in the right…

An hour ago, the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee released the outcome of its meeting this week, keeping its policy rate unchanged (as expected) but slowing the pace of its Quantitative Tightening program.And just a little while ago, Fed Chair Jerome Powell just wrapped up his press conference related to this release. The market’s reaction (so…

Well, the Spring Thoughtful Money conference was held online this past weekend and I’m delighted to say the event was a real success.That was due primarily to the amazing line-up of speakers who presented and took live audience Q&A throughout the insight-packed 10-hour day.Lacy Hunt delivered the keynote, followed by Luke Gromen, Michael Howell, Da…

Macro analyst Stephanie Pomboy and I just concluded our bi-weekly live show.This week, Stephanie focused on recession risk and the mental gymnastics many go through to avoid addressing it.Not only are the economic data continuing to weaken, but even the new Administration is telling investors to prepare for a slowdown.Here’s US Treasury Secretary S…

After four weeks of relentless selling, the charter of the stock market has changed.While a short-term bounce is likely here, sentiment is now damaged.It will be harder for the market to race back to new highs, as investors start to price in a greater acceptance of the current risk factors.WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVI…

After a pummeling few weeks over which the stocks lost $trillions in market cap, Friday saw a big rally and the reversal of a number of technical indicators.Does this mean the bottom is in? At least, in the near term?Quite possibly, says portfolio manager Michael Lebowitz.We discuss the reasons why this is more likely than not, and the importance o…

As mentioned many times on this program, stocks entered the year trading at or near record-high valuation extremes.When stocks are at such overbought extremes, short-sellers smell opportunity. They've certainly had a lot of it over the past two weeks.Today we have the good fortune of speaking with one of the best known short-sellers in the business…

Gold has experienced a major upwards repricing in recent years.It's up nearly $1,000/oz over the past two years.And in just the past year alone, it's up 35%, handily outperforming the S&P's return of just 13%.Some say gold is quite overbought after this big run. Others say it's just getting started, and that far higher prices lie ahead due to the o…

From tariffs to tax cuts to de-regulation to budget reductions to a potential sovereign wealth fund, the new Trump administration is moving aggressively to redesign the way America finances itself.Are these much-needed reforms that will put the American economy on a more secure & sustainable footing?Or could they risk resulting in misguided chaos?T…

Stocks have had a rough week, declining through mid-day Friday until finally bouncing in the last few hours.Is the bottom in?It could be, says portfolio manager Lance Roberts. The downward price action has been so swift, and the sentiment swing so negative, that stocks look very oversold in the near term.So he thinks a continued bounce from here ne…

There's a lot of urgency right now in America to reduce the fiscal deficit via the new D.O.G.E and also to reduce its trade deficit via the threat of tariffs.Both initiatives are creating a lot of disruption right now, and have their fair share of vocal supporters and detractors.Are they likely to work? And at what cost?For discuss, we're fortunate…

When today's guest was last on this program back in December, he warned that after blockbuster double-digit returns in 2023 and 2024, stocks were likely to have a tougher time this year.Well, so far, with the S&P slightly down YTD for 2025, that prediction is proving prescient.So, where does he see the market headed from here?To find out, we're for…

Our bi-weekly ‘Macro Monday Mornings’ with Stephanie Pomboy resumed today.We discussed the mounting signs of economic slowdown, as well as the continued ‘stickiness’ of inflation.Will the rest of 2025 see us stuck in Stagflation?Stephanie thinks the odds are uncomfortably high. And similarly so for a material correction in the financial markets.We …

There can be little doubt we're at a material juncture: Deficit spending and the resulting pile of debts and other sovereign liabilities are starting to place real limits on our economic prosperity. In addition to these legacies of the past, the future is fast becoming more uncertain as many nations -- the US in particular -- are embarking on new p…

This week was a roller-coaster ride for the markets. Stocks weakened as the week progressed, and then really started falling after Nvidia's guidance failed to restore confidence in investors.But then the markets rallied hard into the close on Friday. Which is causing investors everyone to ask:Is the sell-off over?Or, is this merely a head-fake befo…

The US dollar has been very strong for several years now. Among other implications, capital from the rest of the world has flooded into US stocks as a result.Today’s guest predicts that for many reasons, especially America’s need to get bond yields lower in order to make its debt more serviceable, the dollar will fall materially over the coming yea…

Stock market valuations remain high by nearly every valuation metric.And what concerns today's guest is that the earnings estimates being used to price stocks today seem far above what the free cash flows of the underlying companies will be able to deliver.In short, stocks prices appear to be promising returns that their actual profit growth simply…

GET MICHAELS FREE ARTICLE ON STATECRAFT at https://thoughtfulmoney.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/global_strategy_us_economic_statecraft_days_of_future_past.pdfWhen today's guest was last on this program back in Nov, he predicted we'd see continued momentum geopolitically away from globalization and towards mercantilism and protectionism.That has p…

"It's almost a guaranteed setup for a mean-reverting event"That's how portfolio manager Lance Roberts views the extremely-rosy earnings estimates currently forecasted for 2025 are.In his estimation, these estimates are so far removed from what actual corporate profits will be able to deliver that downwards repricing event is highly likely.The criti…

The financial advisors from New Harbor Financial explain why the odds favor higher stock prices from here in the near term, to new all-time highs.They also discuss the prospects for gold & the gold miners (both promising, especially the latter), the safety of T-bills, and what to do if you fear you may lose your job in 2025.WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET…

When today's guest was last on this program back in October, she advised investors to prepare for a more volatile year ahead in 2025 - a year in which she predicted 'the game would start to get harder"So far, with the major indices stuck bouncing up & down in a trading range, her prediction is looking prescient.Now that we're two months into the ye…

When today's guest was last on this program back in June, he predicted that interest rates would remain "higher for longer".And the ensuing seven months proved him correct.With inflation remaining stubbornly sticky, new tariffs and other disruptive policies announced by Trump administration, $trillions in US Treasury debt to mature this year, and t…

Are investors TOO bullish now?Portfolio manager Lance Roberts is concerned they are. Wall Street is flush with money and throwing it at just about every asset right now.Lance sees a lot of similarities to late 2021/early 2022, right before the over-valued markets corrected by 20%...but many retail investors lost 40-50% of their portfolio wealth bec…

If you have questions about inflation, interest rates, bond yields, Tech stocks, AI, recession risk and jobs, then this video is a must-watch. Today's guest earned well-deserved fame by successfully predicting the 2008 financial crisis.I'm very pleased and honored to welcome to the program economist and educator Dr Nouriel Roubini, the co-founder a…

Today's guest is best known for his HOPE framework, a highly effective way to measure the health of the economy, and tell whether it's getting stronger or weaker.As we begin a new year -- with record housing unaffordability, trade wars and a cooling jobs market -- what does his framework tell us 2025 has in store?To find out, we have the good fortu…

Housing expert Melody Wright has updated her outlook on US home prices for 2025, now predicting they will decline nationally.

If you're familiar with the concept of the 4th Turning, it's hard to deny we're in one now.A fourth turning is a societal cycle during which the power structure and institutions that long existed are disrupted and dismantled, and eventually replaced by a new order. Daily now we're seeing an accelerated dismantling of the status quo.Whether you deem…

The market has been tossed a lot of surprises lately -- even a near-black swan (DeepSeek) -- and yet, stocks have shrugged off all the uncertainty.Investor sentiment remains sky-high.And concern of the growing list of risk factors appears quite low.So, is "irrational exuberance" back?That's what portfolio manager Michael Lebowitz and I discuss in t…

One of the biggest forces boosting both economic growth and asset price appreciation over recent years has been the explosion of higher fiscal deficit spending -- sending the prices of all assets including growth stocks, gold and Bitcoin soaring.Today's guest, analyst Lyn Alden, predicts we'll be stuck with these these large deficits for a long tim…

Tariffs, trade wards, DOGE, deportations -- the disruption has come fast and furious so far during president Trump's first two weeks in office.The non-stop surprises (not to mention the DeepSeek scare) are creating a lot of market volatility, as well as a lot of uncertainty for analysts and pundits .How are we regular investors supposed to navigate…

Well, we have a new US Presidential Administration with a very different economic strategy than its predecessor.The president has already started vocally demanding the Federal Reserve be more aggressive in lowering interest rates. And he's appointed a new head, Scott Bessent, at the US Treasury, replacing Janet Yellen.What should we expect from the…

Macro & market analyst Stephanie Pomboy shares the latest investing trends that have her attention + takes live Q&A from the viewing audience

When Sven Henrich of NorthmanTrader.com was last on this program in November, he gave the advice "remain bullish, but be careful"Since then the S&P has increased slightly, but mostly trended sideways.Here at the start of 2025, what does his Technical Analysis tell us to expect next?And did the shock to investors delivered by China's surprise releas…

Well, despite a week of high uncertainty -- the DeepSeek surprise, earnings releases for many of the Magnificent 7 stocks, a terrible aviation disaster and the declaration of tariffs against some of America's largest trading partners -- the markets actually seem to be doing fine.The bulls are back in control and, technically-speaking, the action in…

Recession fears seem to have faded from the headlines, as the "no landing" scenario seems to have won out -- on Wall Street at least.Attention is much more focused on a possible boost to economic growth from the policies of the new Trump administration, as well as concern that inflation could prove stickier and more stubborn to tame than the Fed ho…

When today's guest was on this program back in September, he predicted the market would start to become more volatile.He didn't necessarily think that would mean lower stock prices into the end of 2024. And he was proven correct.But he did express worry that as we entered 2025, continued higher volatility could start to become a problem for investo…

Charles Hugh Smith joins me to explain DeepSeek and what it's potential significance isBUY YOUR TICKET ATTHE EARLY BIRD PRICE FOR OUR MARCH 15 CONFERENCE at https://thoughtfulmoney.com/conference

On this channel we conduct deep-dive discussions with hundreds of experts a year, doing our best to see through their eyes and chart a wise course through the economic waters ahead.But with all the different approaches, opinions and conclusions, it's important to remind ourselves not to overcomplicate things.The fundamentals to wealth building aren…

Portfolio manager Lance Roberts warns that corporate earnings expectations are likely unrealistic, and that one Wall Street realizes this, stock prices will have to come down.WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com…

In his previous appearances on this channel, Michael Howell, founder & CEO of Crossborder Capital, has explained that rising net liquidity been largely responsible for the surprisingly strong performance seen in both the economy & the financial markets over the past 2 years.Will the good times continue into 2025?Don't count on it, Michael says.To f…

One of the great David Bowie's most popular songs was titled "Changes"Today's guest David Hay, Chief Investment Officer & Principal at Evergreen Gavekal, might well steal that title for his expected theme of 2025He sees headwinds that could cause the economy to grow slower than many currently expect.He sees the prices of stocks and bonds at risk. T…

Stephanie Pomboy shares her latest outlook on inflation.WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

The winds of change are blowing around the globe.74 countries representing half of the world's population held national elections last year.Many of them -- including the US -- saw a replacement of the ruling incumbent by the opposition, often one promising a more nationalistic agenda.With so many new leaders and their accompanying new policies, wha…

Portfolio manager Lance Roberts lays out the odds for where stocks are headed next.We also discuss the rising bond term premium & what it means, the risk of a large market drawdown in 2025, Lance fir'sm latest trades and the benefits of using time to your advantage in both investing & life.WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVI…